159
FXUS63 KBIS 260123
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
723 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.
- AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
JRV. WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS, IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CITY OF JMS
AROUND 7:30 OR SO. THIS BAND HAS BEEN PRODUCING FROM A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO, UP TO AROUND 5 HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN AND IS
PRODUCING VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN HAS STOPPED OVER WEST OF THE
MISSOURI, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
IN FACT, IN SOME AREAS IT WILL REMAIN ICY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SIDEWALKS,
DRIVEWAYS, AND ANY UNTREATED SURFACES MAY REMAIN ICY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY, FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO MELT ON FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE ONLY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, WOULD THINK THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW VSBYS IN THE
SOUTHERN JRV, AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FZRA. ONCE THAT MOVES THROUGH
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR EXPANSION OF FOG IN THE NORTHWEST, AND
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES DOWN THE ROAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL ND, BUT DID EXTEND IT UP ONTO PIERCE AND WELLS
COUNTIES. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES INCREASED GREATLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER ARE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING, BUT ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF RAIN COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. DID
INCLUDE GRANT SIOUX AND EMMONS COUNTIES THOUGH AS THERE LOOKED
TO BE AN AREA OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. DEPENDING
ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN JRV COUNTIES OF DICKEY, LAMOURE, LOGAN AND
MCINTOSH AS WELL, BUT HAVE SOME TIME THERE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
FOG TO DEAL WITH. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FOR WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
OPTED TO EXPIRE COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z ELSEWHERE. WHILE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AT BOTH BISMARCK AND LINTON, ELSEWHERE
ACROSS BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES LOW VISIBILITY PERSISTS IN
FOG. STILL SOUPY IN MY SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CURRENTLY, EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TOWARDS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A LINGERING WELL-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO WEST ALLOWING BETTER MIXING AND
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FROPA WILL
CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TRANSITIONING WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND WILL ACT TO ERODE
THE FOG SLOWLY WEST TO EAST. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP
AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY RETREATING BACK
EAST, BUT PERSISTS NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OVER THOSE AREAS WEST THAT IMPROVED. CAMS ALSO ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG LINGERING EAST INTO PARTS OF THIS
EVENING, AND REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. FOG IS THEN FORECAST
TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AM, LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST. CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 1600 CST, AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND SOME
COUNTIES. WILL RELOOK OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
IN ADDITION, ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW DECENT RADAR
RETURNS NOW AND SFC OBS REPORTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH SOME OF THESE HIGHER RETURNS. HOWEVER, STILL ONLY
EXPECT MINIMAL MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES AND NBM STILL ARE LACKING ON QPF, WITH LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW FORECAST CURRENTLY WITH THIS WAVE. COLD FROPA
DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SAT AND SAT NIGHT, AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO
THE DAKOTAS. LACK OF SNOW WILL LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. COLD WEATHER AND/OR WIND HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR THE SATURDAY- SUNDAY PERIOD, WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. THE STRONGER OF THESE
WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WED/WED NIGHT, WITH TIMING
ISSUES OF THE COLD FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE STILL
APPARENT WITH NBM STILL SHOWING A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FOR HIGHS NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD IN LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. KDIK IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOP. A COLD
FRONT IS BRINGING PERIOD OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING AND MAY IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES A LITTLE, BUT THE WILL LIKELY DROP AGAIN AFTER THE
PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A
LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045-046.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ047-
048-050-051.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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