920
FXUS63 KBIS 260634
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY DENSE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
MIDNIGHT CST SINCE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE OF COURSE STILL
MESSAGED THE FACT THAT MANY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, ETC REMAIN ICY DUE
TO THE EARLIER FREEZING RAIN EVENT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ND AS OF 05 UTC, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. WE EXPECT MAINTENANCE
AND EXPANSION OF BOTH STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. WE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 1/2SM HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT THUS FAR. THAT
SAID, WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT IN
THE COMING HOURS. THAT ADVISORY IS MOST PROBABLE IN NORTHWEST
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND, FROM THE WILLISTON AND TIOGA AREAS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD BISMARCK/MANDAN AND VICINITY, ALONG THE OFTEN-
FAVORED WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK, AND WHERE THOSE LOW
CEILINGS INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FREEZING RAIN HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LAST OF THE FZRA IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES. IT ALSO DRIED OUT A
BIT BEHIND THIS AREA OF FZRA SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID, WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE FOG THICKEN OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY BE SPARED TONIGHT. CENTRAL ND MAY
SEE FOG LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE CLEARING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FOG, WE
COULD SEE FOG DEPOSITION ON ROADS, SO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE FOG.
WITH THE FZRA EXITING THE JRV WE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. CURRENTLY, THE ONLY REMAINING HAZARD IS
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY (NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS WERE
CANCELLED). THIS CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST. WILL KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE FZRA HAS ENDED.
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BISMARCK MANDAN AREA, WHICH SAW THE
GREATEST LIQUID AMOUNTS (AROUND 0.05") ROADS REMAIN VERY
SLIPPERY. MANY SURFACES WILL REMAIN ICY IN THE REMAINING
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY, SO IF/WHEN THIS DOES OCCUR, WE WILL
GET RID OF THE ICE.
OTHER THAN THE FOG, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SMALL
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
JRV. WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS, IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CITY OF JMS
AROUND 7:30 OR SO. THIS BAND HAS BEEN PRODUCING FROM A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO, UP TO AROUND 5 HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN AND IS
PRODUCING VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN HAS STOPPED OVER WEST OF THE
MISSOURI, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
IN FACT, IN SOME AREAS IT WILL REMAIN ICY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SIDEWALKS,
DRIVEWAYS, AND ANY UNTREATED SURFACES MAY REMAIN ICY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY, FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO MELT ON FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE ONLY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, WOULD THINK THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW VSBYS IN THE
SOUTHERN JRV, AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FZRA. ONCE THAT MOVES THROUGH
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR EXPANSION OF FOG IN THE NORTHWEST, AND
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES DOWN THE ROAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL ND, BUT DID EXTEND IT UP ONTO PIERCE AND WELLS
COUNTIES. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES INCREASED GREATLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER ARE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING, BUT ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF RAIN COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. DID
INCLUDE GRANT SIOUX AND EMMONS COUNTIES THOUGH AS THERE LOOKED
TO BE AN AREA OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. DEPENDING
ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN JRV COUNTIES OF DICKEY, LAMOURE, LOGAN AND
MCINTOSH AS WELL, BUT HAVE SOME TIME THERE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
FOG TO DEAL WITH. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FOR WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
OPTED TO EXPIRE COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z ELSEWHERE. WHILE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AT BOTH BISMARCK AND LINTON, ELSEWHERE
ACROSS BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES LOW VISIBILITY PERSISTS IN
FOG. STILL SOUPY IN MY SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CURRENTLY, EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TOWARDS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A LINGERING WELL-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO WEST ALLOWING BETTER MIXING AND
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FROPA WILL
CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TRANSITIONING WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND WILL ACT TO ERODE
THE FOG SLOWLY WEST TO EAST. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP
AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY RETREATING BACK
EAST, BUT PERSISTS NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OVER THOSE AREAS WEST THAT IMPROVED. CAMS ALSO ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG LINGERING EAST INTO PARTS OF THIS
EVENING, AND REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. FOG IS THEN FORECAST
TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AM, LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST. CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 1600 CST, AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND SOME
COUNTIES. WILL RELOOK OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
IN ADDITION, ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW DECENT RADAR
RETURNS NOW AND SFC OBS REPORTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH SOME OF THESE HIGHER RETURNS. HOWEVER, STILL ONLY
EXPECT MINIMAL MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES AND NBM STILL ARE LACKING ON QPF, WITH LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW FORECAST CURRENTLY WITH THIS WAVE. COLD FROPA
DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SAT AND SAT NIGHT, AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO
THE DAKOTAS. LACK OF SNOW WILL LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. COLD WEATHER AND/OR WIND HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR THE SATURDAY- SUNDAY PERIOD, WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. THE STRONGER OF THESE
WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WED/WED NIGHT, WITH TIMING
ISSUES OF THE COLD FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE STILL
APPARENT WITH NBM STILL SHOWING A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FOR HIGHS NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL ND MAY SEE LOW STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WITHIN THE FOG WHICH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MAY SPARE THE FAR SOUTHWEST, EXPECT IFR-LIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. SURFACE FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CJS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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