348
FXUS63 KBIS 262300
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
500 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
QUICK UPDATE FOR EXTENSION AND EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENTLY, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DENSE FOG REMAINS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I94 AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO ONCE AGAIN
EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TILL 23Z (5PM CST) FOR MY 8
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SFC VISIBILITY OBS NOT THAT HORRIBLE, YET
WEB CAMS WITHIN THIS AREA CONTINUE DO SHOW THE DENSE FOG AND
LOWER VISIBILITY. THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHWARD INTO MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OVER CENTRAL ND QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST AND HEADLINES AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE CLEARING WEST, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
NICELY THERE, CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. COLDER IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS CENTRAL AND EAST.
IN ADDITION, SOME POP UP SHOWERS (FREEZING RAIN IF ANYTHING)
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ND, WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
REPORTED THUS FAR, AS AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF FREEZING RAIN
FROM WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH CENTRAL, AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL S/WV MOVES THROUGH ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION NEAR A WARM FRONTAL ZONE. WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE, SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE, THUS THE LOW END POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. MOST MODELS FAIL TO GENERATE MUCH IF
ANY QPF AS WELL.
WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS/SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
PERSISTING AND/OR REDEVELOPING IN CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND WILL
PUSH DRY AIR ADVECTION WEST TO EAST, WHICH IS FORECAST BY CAMS
TO ERODE THE FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A RATHER STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES AND NBM STILL ARE LACKING ON QPF,
WITH AROUND TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FORECAST WITH THIS
WAVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH NBM ONLY HAS LOW END POPS CURRENTLY, AND
EXPECT THESE POPS SUNDAY DAYTIME TO INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER.
COLD FROPA MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT EVENING, AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER, SO RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT A LOW END WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. THE LACK OF NEW SNOW WILL ALSO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO WEST, WHERE AND WHEN COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WEST
COASTAL REGION, THEN WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM FAVORS A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
MON AND TUE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH SOME LOW END
POPS ON TUE AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WE'RE STILL
EXPECTING A STRONGER S/WV TO MOVE THROUGH FLOW ALOFT WED/WED
NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGHER POPS AND A COLDER PERIOD
MID-WEEK. NBM STILL SHOWS A 20-25 DEGREE SPREAD FOR WED HIGHS
IN THE 25/75 PERCENTILES, WITH TIMING ISSUES OF THE COLD FROPA
REMAINING. AFTER THURSDAY, WE ARE FAVORED TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED CENTRAL (KMOT/KBIS). KJMS MAY SEE
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS WEST TODAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE KXWA TO
KBIS CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THOSE TAF
FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT SOUTHWEST. IF AND
WHERE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT, MODELS ARE FAVORING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-010>013-020>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...CJS/NH
AVIATION...NH
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