963
FXUS63 KBIS 270647
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BURKE COUNTY TONIGHT, AND A LOW CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WE CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES SINCE FREEZING
RAIN HAS EXITED THOSE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER, AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES IN BURKE COUNTY AS OF 0630 UTC, SO
WE WILL MAINTAIN THAT PORTION OF THE ADVISORY FOR A BIT LONGER.
WE DID REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER BASED ON RECENT TRENDS, MAINTAINING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 1000 FT AGL INCREASES TO 30 KT
PER RECENT VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM KBIS. HOWEVER, AS OF THIS
WRITING NO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES CAN BE REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM
THE ADVISORY IN AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HOWEVER, WE WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER OR NOT
THE DENSE FOG MAY LINGER IN NORTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS SOME RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LASTLY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THE STRATUS/MOIST LAYER IS
NOT QUITE DEEP ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IN NORTH
CENTRAL ND OR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY (UNLIKE FURTHER EAST IN THE
GRAND FORKS AREA), SO WE HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF THAT TO
THE FORECAST DESPITE THE LOW- AND MIDLEVEL ASCENT (WARM AIR
ADVECTION) ONGOING IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED STRATUS
DECK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RAPID REFRESH MODEL TRENDS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS, SIOUX, EMMONS, LOGAN, AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE REST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AS WELL AS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
DIVIDE, WILLIAMS, AND BURKE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION PREPARING TO CROSS THE MONTANA BORDER
WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
ALREADY SEEING UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION AT THE WILLISTON AIRPORT,
AND FREEZING RAIN AT ESTEVAN. UPSTREAM RADAR LOOKS MORE INTENSE,
SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
DENSE FOG HAS RAPIDLY SETTLED BACK IN UNDERNEATH THE LOW
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE DO
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE
NIGHT, MORESO TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER, RECENT
RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALREADY ERODING THE FOG QUICKER THAN WHAT IS
BEING OBSERVED, AND EARLIER RUNS OF THESE MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE
A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS UNFOLDING AT THIS HOUR. THE EARLIER
RUNS ALSO HAD A WEST-TO-EAST IMPROVEMENT, BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER
TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WE ARE ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE. BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHARACTERISTICS BLOSSOMED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THESE HAVE SINCE MOVED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT
ARE NOW CONFIRMED TO BE PRODUCING IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING, WHERE SOME CAMS SIMULATE A BROKEN LINE OF FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA TOWARD
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF
UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION FROM AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITES AT WOLF
POINT AND PLENTYWOOD, AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
QUICK UPDATE FOR EXTENSION AND EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENTLY, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DENSE FOG REMAINS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I94 AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO ONCE AGAIN
EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TILL 23Z (5PM CST) FOR MY 8
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SFC VISIBILITY OBS NOT THAT HORRIBLE, YET
WEB CAMS WITHIN THIS AREA CONTINUE DO SHOW THE DENSE FOG AND
LOWER VISIBILITY. THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHWARD INTO MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OVER CENTRAL ND QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST AND HEADLINES AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE CLEARING WEST, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
NICELY THERE, CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. COLDER IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS CENTRAL AND EAST.
IN ADDITION, SOME POP UP SHOWERS (FREEZING RAIN IF ANYTHING)
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ND, WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
REPORTED THUS FAR, AS AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF FREEZING RAIN
FROM WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH CENTRAL, AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL S/WV MOVES THROUGH ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION NEAR A WARM FRONTAL ZONE. WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE, SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE, THUS THE LOW END POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. MOST MODELS FAIL TO GENERATE MUCH IF
ANY QPF AS WELL.
WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS/SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
PERSISTING AND/OR REDEVELOPING IN CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND WILL
PUSH DRY AIR ADVECTION WEST TO EAST, WHICH IS FORECAST BY CAMS
TO ERODE THE FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A RATHER STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES AND NBM STILL ARE LACKING ON QPF,
WITH AROUND TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FORECAST WITH THIS
WAVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH NBM ONLY HAS LOW END POPS CURRENTLY, AND
EXPECT THESE POPS SUNDAY DAYTIME TO INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER.
COLD FROPA MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT EVENING, AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER, SO RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT A LOW END WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. THE LACK OF NEW SNOW WILL ALSO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO WEST, WHERE AND WHEN COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WEST
COASTAL REGION, THEN WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM FAVORS A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
MON AND TUE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH SOME LOW END
POPS ON TUE AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WE'RE STILL
EXPECTING A STRONGER S/WV TO MOVE THROUGH FLOW ALOFT WED/WED
NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGHER POPS AND A COLDER PERIOD
MID-WEEK. NBM STILL SHOWS A 20-25 DEGREE SPREAD FOR WED HIGHS
IN THE 25/75 PERCENTILES, WITH TIMING ISSUES OF THE COLD FROPA
REMAINING. AFTER THURSDAY, WE ARE FAVORED TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS WITH DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, A GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST IMPROVEMENT IN THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH, LOW CEILINGS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, AT LEAST AS LOW AS
IFR LEVELS.
AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN,
WILL CONTINUE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY TO REACH KMOT.
A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE KBIS TAF
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KT THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED AROUND 1000 FT AGL.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A PERIOD OF FALLING SNOW TO MOST TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS RETURNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
010>013-020>023-025-034>037-048-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ002.
UPDATE...CJS/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...CJS/NH
AVIATION...HOLLAN/CJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page