502
FXUS63 KBIS 272054
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING.
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A
LOW STRATUS DECK AND DENSE FOG ONGOING TO START THE AFTERNOON,
AND AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, LIGHT SNOW,
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER WESTERN
MONTANA, WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES, VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE
STRATUS CONTINUING TO EXPAND SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. IT HAS
BEEN TRICKY DETERMINING WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE, AS SOME LOCATIONS UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS ARE
IMMEDIATELY IN DENSE FOG, WHILE OTHERS HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHP-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT SCOURING
OUT THE DENSE FOG TONIGHT, SO WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS EXPECTED,
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A BUBBLE OF PRESSURE RISES AND
LOW AND MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND
POTENTIAL GENERALLY UP TO 40 KNOTS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT,
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA BACK TO JUST EAST OF
THE BILLINGS AREA. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION,
DEPENDING ON IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND WHEN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT STILL EXISTS, BUT THIS IS A
VERY NARROW TEMPORAL WINDOW BEFORE THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS AND
SNOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT P-TYPE.
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH GENERALLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH AND WEST, AND 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL.
THE CONCERN COMES FROM THIS SNOW FALLING WHILE THERE ARE STRONG
WINDS WITH THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS, IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP AS LOW AS ONE HALF OF A MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME,
BUT MODESTLY LOW VISIBILITIES COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE WE ARE
EMPHASIZING IS THAT EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW IS EXPECTED,
TRAVEL COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
QUITE A BIT TONIGHT, AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
HAZARD, IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE STACKED
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, STRONG WINDS AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT,
WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, BUT
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS MORE. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY
WILL BE MUCH COLDER, WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD, WITH
FORECAST AIR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THE START AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS THAT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE ON THE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 30S BY
TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE CYCLONIC FLOW. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN SYSTEM, WITH NBM 5.0 PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT.
NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING
A VERY LARGE RANGE IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE, SIGNALING THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS UP, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS HIGHEST ON NEW YEAR'S EVE. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A LARGE TEMPERATURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH CENTRAL
TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND CHILL
CONCERN FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY MORNING,
WITH CURRENT NBM DETERMINISTIC LOW TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO END THE WEEK AND
START THE NEW YEAR, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PROGRESSION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SPREAD IN NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES. FOR
NOW, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VERY LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING
KXWA, KMOT, AND KJMS, WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE IMPROVING WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
STATE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST UP
TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT,
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
SNOW IS FALLING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT, INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY TODAY (UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES LATE).
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-037-048-051.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ040>045.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page