572
FXUS63 KBIS 280651
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE
HALF MILE AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FALLING SNOW.
- THE GREATEST IMPACTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED FROM
AROUND HARVEY AND CARRINGTON TO BETWEEN LINTON AND ELLENDALE,
WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
TONIGHT, AND WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE, WE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN SOUTHEASTERN ND SINCE FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS. THAT
INCLUDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOOST HOURLY PRECIPITATION (SNOW)
CHANCES TO 100% WHERE AND AS THE BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS ITS AXIS
OVER CENTRAL ND AS OF 0630 UTC CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
THAT SNOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG, BUT PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED 500 MB LOW THAT IS IN
NORTHEASTERN MT AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SNOW FORECAST TO BOOST IT INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OVER MORE OF
THE AREA APPEARS ON TRACK, AS DO ONGOING ADVISORIES FOR WIND,
BLOWING SNOW, AND COLD WIND CHILLS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE ONLY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO CANCEL THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DENSE FOG. STILL EXPECT THE
FOG TO LIFT, OR AT LEAST BECOME LESS DENSE, NO LATER THAN THE
ADVISORY'S SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT.
00Z CAMS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN THE
INHERITED FORECAST, AND A RECENT REPORT FROM MOUNTRAIL COUNTY OF
2 INCHES IS DOUBLE WHAT WE HAD FORECAST THERE. ANY INCREASE IN
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE TRENDS HOLDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 742 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE
REGION ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TWO
HEADLINE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE.
THE FIRST WAS TO CANCEL A LARGE PORTION OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WHERE VISIBILITY HAS GREATLY IMPROVED. THIS ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MIDNIGHT, BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES (PERHAPS ALL) PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.
THE SECOND AND MORE IMPORTANT HEADLINE CHANGE WAS THE ISSUANCE
OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WELLS AND FOSTER DOWN THROUGH
EMMONS, MCINTOSH, AND DICKEY COUNTIES. THERE ARE SEVERAL HAZARDS
TO BE ADDRESSED IN THIS AREA, AND THESE HAZARDS ARE ACTUALLY
SIMILAR TO WHAT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
EXPERIENCE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS VS. NOT (WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED) IS THE EXPECTED DURATION OF THE IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY
FROM BLOWING SNOW.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
TRAILING BAND OF SNOW, WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION. RAP SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM THAT THERE IS A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NO COLDER THAN AROUND -10 C AND A DRY LAYER
OF AIR ALOFT THAT DOES NOT FULLY SATURATE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING. EARLIER REPORTS OF UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS WATFORD CITY, BUT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THINK THIS HAZARD IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED RATES
EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW, WHERE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE
MOTION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PERPENDICULAR TO ITS MAJOR AXIS,
SO THIS DOES NOT GREATLY RAISE OUR SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS.
HOWEVER, WE ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE END-LINE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
STALLING BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 83 AND 281 ON SUNDAY. THIS TOO DOES
NOT DRASTICALLY RAISE OUR SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS AS THIS
LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE INITIAL BAND.
BUT ANY EXTRA AMOUNT OF FRESH SNOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER
IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. THE CONTRIBUTING DYNAMICS TO THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS PART OF THE STATE APPEAR TO BE
TWOFOLD. FIRST, THERE IS THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES, WHICH ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG IN THIS CASE, BUT
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY TIGHTLY PACKED SURFACE ISOBARS AND LOW LEVEL
ISOTHERMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG
HERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, AND THAT IS WHEN MEAN
MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THEIR PEAK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM OUR BLOWING SNOW MODEL SHOWS
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THERE ARE SHORT-DURATION POCKETS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE EXPECTED
IMPACTS AND THEIR DURATION HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. EVEN WITHOUT ANY BLOWABLE
SNOW, AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WOULD HAVE
LIKELY BEEN NEEDED FOR THIS PART OF THE STATE REGARDLESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A
LOW STRATUS DECK AND DENSE FOG ONGOING TO START THE AFTERNOON,
AND AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, LIGHT SNOW,
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER WESTERN
MONTANA, WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES, VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE
STRATUS CONTINUING TO EXPAND SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. IT HAS
BEEN TRICKY DETERMINING WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE, AS SOME LOCATIONS UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS ARE
IMMEDIATELY IN DENSE FOG, WHILE OTHERS HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHP-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT SCOURING
OUT THE DENSE FOG TONIGHT, SO WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS EXPECTED,
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A BUBBLE OF PRESSURE RISES AND
LOW AND MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND
POTENTIAL GENERALLY UP TO 40 KNOTS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT,
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA BACK TO JUST EAST OF
THE BILLINGS AREA. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION,
DEPENDING ON IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND WHEN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT STILL EXISTS, BUT THIS IS A
VERY NARROW TEMPORAL WINDOW BEFORE THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS AND
SNOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT P-TYPE.
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH GENERALLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH AND WEST, AND 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL.
THE CONCERN COMES FROM THIS SNOW FALLING WHILE THERE ARE STRONG
WINDS WITH THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS, IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP AS LOW AS ONE HALF OF A MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME,
BUT MODESTLY LOW VISIBILITIES COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE WE ARE
EMPHASIZING IS THAT EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW IS EXPECTED,
TRAVEL COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
QUITE A BIT TONIGHT, AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
HAZARD, IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE STACKED
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, STRONG WINDS AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT,
WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, BUT
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS MORE. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY
WILL BE MUCH COLDER, WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD, WITH
FORECAST AIR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THE START AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS THAT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE ON THE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 30S BY
TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE CYCLONIC FLOW. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN SYSTEM, WITH NBM 5.0 PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT.
NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING
A VERY LARGE RANGE IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE, SIGNALING THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS UP, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS HIGHEST ON NEW YEAR'S EVE. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A LARGE TEMPERATURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH CENTRAL
TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND CHILL
CONCERN FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY MORNING,
WITH CURRENT NBM DETERMINISTIC LOW TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO END THE WEEK AND
START THE NEW YEAR, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PROGRESSION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SPREAD IN NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES. FOR
NOW, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A BAND OF SNOW WITH IFR TO LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITY AND MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN WESTERN ND AS
THE SNOW BAND MOVES EAST, BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN ND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING AT KJMS
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND COULD COMBINE WITH FRESH SNOWFALL TO
PRODUCE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT
KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025-036-037-046>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ040>045.
UPDATE...CJS/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...CJS/HOLLAN
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