264
FXUS63 KBIS 290601
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
LATE THIS EVENING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT, BUT STILL COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.
- WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY. THEN A
LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
FALLING SNOW HAS BROADLY ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS EXITS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS, VISIBILITY HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THUS, WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT CST.
OTHERWISE, WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEGUN TO DROP AS LOW 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. WITH
THIS UPDATE, HAVE ADDED KIDDER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES TO THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE
MADE AT THIS TIME, AS IT BROADLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
RADAR, SATELLITE, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FALLING SNOW
QUICKLY ENDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BISMARCK. BUT WINDS
TRAILING THE SNOWFALL REMAIN STRONG, WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH
STILL BEING REPORTED AT JAMESTOWN, AND VISIBILITY AS LOW AS HALF
A MILE FROM BLOWING SNOW WAS STILL BEING REPORTED WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR AT COOPERSTOWN, JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS
GRAND FORKS, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR FOSTER THROUGH DICKEY AND LOGAN AND MCINTOSH
COUNTIES.
ANOTHER MINOR HEADLINE CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO MOVE UP
THE START TIME OF THE NORTH CENTRAL SEGMENT OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO NOW, ALSO IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS GRAND FORKS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY APPROACHING
WINDS CHILLS OF 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 4 PM MST.
ALL OTHER PRODUCTS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. FALLING SNOW WILL END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE REMAINING
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BANDING SIGNATURES NEAR BISMARCK, AND CAN
CONFIRM FROM VISUAL OBSERVATION THERE ARE LARGER DENDRITES/
AGGREGATES. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL
LAG BEHIND THE ENDING OF THE FALLING SNOW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A LATER END TIME OF IMPACTFUL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ND AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THIS SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. THUS WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT. IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
STILL AROUND 30 MPH WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT HETTINGER,
BOWMAN AND IN SIOUX COUNTY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO
EXPIRE AT 5 PM AND THINK IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE LET GO, BUT
WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. IF IT WERE EXTENDED, WOULD THINK IT
WOULD ONLY BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ND. HOWEVER, IN THE NORTHWEST WE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. CURRENT WIND CHILLS
ARE 25 TO 30 BELOW, AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WE ALSO ADDED A GROUP OF COUNTIES IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT WE
WON'T START THE ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE COUNTIES WILL ALSO RUN THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.
WE BEGIN A QUICK WARMUP ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST ND, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. IT WILL NOT BE WINDY ON MONDAY SO
IT WILL FEEL A LOT CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE THAN IT
DID TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AND WE SEE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN ON TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
WESTWARD, SETTING UP A PRETTY TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. EXACTLY WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS UP AND WHERE THE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST TRACKS WILL DETERMINE WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. BASED ON THE FG AND QG FORCING WITH GOOD
LAPSE RATES, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW BANDS THAT SET UP, BUT
THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO WOULDN'T EXPECT
ANY ONE AREA WOULD SEE LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH IDEAL FORCING.
AT THIS TIME NBM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA. WITH THE UNDULATING BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A
PROGRESSIVE BROAD UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THIS IS A LOW PREDICTABLE
EVENT AT THIS TIME. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE (OR NOT) AS WE
GET CLOSER TO MID WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY GOING FORWARD IS THE CONTINUED LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FLUCTUATING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH BISMARCK SHOWING BASICALLY A 15-20 DEGREE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAX TEMPERATURE
FROM WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31ST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, JANUARY
7TH. MIN TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT I
DON'T RECALL A LONGER STRETCH OF LOW PREDICTABLE TEMPERATURES
SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE ENSEMBLE NBM VIEWER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS ON MONDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-022-023-025.
UPDATE...ADAM/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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