088
FXUS63 KBIS 290930
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30
BELOW THIS MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT, NON-ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- WARMER TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TURNING INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH
THIS, LOWS THIS MORNING ARE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, UP TO AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS CHILLS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE SIMILARLY COLD, AS LOW
AS 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
THUS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID MORNING, WHEN SUNRISE AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP. IT'S LOOKING LIKELY
THAT AN EVEN EARLIER CANCELLATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS DIMINISH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, THOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.
A TRANSIENT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS ARE THUS FORECAST TO BE WARMER
TODAY, FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP
THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA THUS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING
THIS PERIOD REVEALS THAT THE COLUMN WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY
SATURATE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED
TO HARSHLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECPITATION THAT ACTUALLY
REACHES THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID, THE ONGOING WAA COULD ALLOW
A SHALLOW 900-850MB WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SATURATED
COLUMN, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. OUR CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE OR SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIMITED TO NON- EXISTENT. OTHERWISE,
WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED, BRIEFLY COOLING AFTERNOON SUNRISE
TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE WARMING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, TO THE LOWER
20S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING A
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING FRONT, A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
BETTER FORCING, AND WITH A MUCH MORE SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN NORTH DAKOTA. WHERE EXACTLY THIS
PRECPITATION DEVELOPS IS GOING TO BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC SETS UP. THE ENSEMBLE REMAINS FAIRLY
DISCORDANT ON ITS PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME, EVIDENT WITH A 15+
DEGREE 25-75TH TEMPERATURES SPREAD ON DAY 3, THOUGH CLUSTER
ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO SCENARIOS. A SLIGHT MAJORITY CLUSTER
(APPROXIMATELY 55 PERCENT OF MODEL MEMBERS) FAVORS THE AXIS OF
PRECPITATION TO BE A DRAPED FROM MINOT DOWN THROUGH JAMESTOWN,
WHILE THE MINORITY CLUSTER (45 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP) IS DISPLACED
FURTHER TO THE EAST, FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA DOWN THROUGH
FARGO. IN EITHER SCENARIO, SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
THE NBM CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ONLY FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO BANDED SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING DECENT LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE 925-850MB FG DURING THIS PERIOD. WHERE THESE POTENTIAL
SNOW BANDS SETUP REMAINS SIMILARLY UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME,
SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EARLY WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BUILD BEYOND THIS POINT AS THE
ENSEMBLE STRUGGLES TO RESOLVE THE RELATIVE STRENGTHEN AND
PLACEMENT OF A HUDSON BAY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SEEMS TO BE FAVORED AT THIS TIME WHICH, WHILE NO STRONG SIGNAL
IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT, COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECPITATION.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF MODEL MEMBERS (80
PERCENT) FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH A STRONG NE TO SW GRADIENT CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CPC DAYS 6-10 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
JANUARY, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS NORTH DAKOTA AS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH. NOTABLY, A COOLER SOLUTION ALSO EXISTS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, THOUGH THIS IS A UNDERDISPERSED CLUSTER OF
MAINLY GEPS SUB MEMBERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS ON MONDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-036-037.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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