754
FXUS63 KBIS 300023
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- WARMER ON TUESDAY, THEN A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHEAST (COLDER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER) MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
MADE SOME MINOR TIMING AND SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE, AND OTHERWISE
BLENDED IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
A BIG FORECAST QUESTION WITH THIS UPDATE IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING EAST, HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, SO WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW THEN
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, ANOTHER
IMPULSE AND BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND A SWATH OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS WAVE, THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN A FREEZING RAIN
SIGNAL, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HOURS OF ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE TO MELT HYDROMETEORS WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, WE HAVE
SEEN MULTIPLE TIMES ALREADY THIS WINTER THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN TO LEAD TO SURFACE IMPACTS. WE HAVE
INCREASED MESSAGING FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE
NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR A LOW CHANCE OF
A GLAZE OF ICE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL.
AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUESDAY, WE GET A BRIEF
REPRIEVE AND WARMUP, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 30S. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THEN QUICKLY SLIDES ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT GETS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE, INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING A LIGHT SNOW EVENT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES,
AS INTERNAL PROBABILITIES BASED ON THE GRIDDED FORECAST GIVE A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER, AS
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND LAPSE RATES THAT WE CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME BANDED SNOWFALL, WHICH GETS WASHED OUT IN BLENDED
PROBABILITIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE ARE EXPECTING A
LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST, TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FAVORED,
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS JUNCTURE IS QUITE LOW. UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHEN NBM 25TH/75TH
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE QUITE A LARGE SPREAD DUE TO
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING SPLIT ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE MAJOR TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS FROM NORTHEAST OF KMOT TO NORTH OF KJMS COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS IS NO GREATER THAN 30
PERCENT. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE KXWA, KMOT, OR KBIS TAF AT THIS TIME. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM KMOT TO KJMS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THIS COULD EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST, BUT IT
COULD ALSO END UP BEING A VFR CEILING OR A SCATTERED MVFR DECK
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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