198
FXUS63 KBIS 300530
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1130 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
(MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO JAMESTOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- WARMER ON TUESDAY, THEN A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHEAST (COLDER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER) MID TO LATE WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRARIES INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID NIGHT UPDATE.
WHILE OBS UPSTRAM HAVE BEEN REPORTING LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE REFLECTIVIES, AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS REVEALS A SHALLOW 950 TO 850MB WARM NOSE AS WAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS, AND WITH SUB
FREEZING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES, ANY PRECPITATION THAT DOES
REACH THE GROUND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO AS FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, A GLAZE OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THIS
TIME, AS IT BROADLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
SO FAR, THE ONLY SUSPECTED PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WAS FROM A SMALL AREA OF WHAT WAS LIKELY LIGHT SNOW
FROM BETWEEN STEELE AND JAMESTOWN DOWN TOWARDS ELLENDALE. WE COULD
NOT CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF SNOW, HOWEVER, AS IT MOVED OVER AN
OBSERVATION-SPARSE AREA. BUT ASSOCIATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY DID
EXCEED 30 DBZ.
A LARGER AREA OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY CAN NOW BE SEEN MOVING CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE 00Z SUITE OF CAMS SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FALLING
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SNOW AND PERHAPS SLEET MIXED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. THE OVERALL TRENDS FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS ARE 1) SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN; 2) A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE; AND 3) AN EASTWARD SHIFT
IN THE SNOW-FREEZING RAIN TRANSITION ZONE. WE HAVE THEREFORE
REISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL BUT A FEW SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WERE HIGHLIGHTED IN ONE EARLIER TODAY, AND SHIFTED ITS
FOCUS MORE ON THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A MIX.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
MADE SOME MINOR TIMING AND SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE, AND OTHERWISE
BLENDED IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
A BIG FORECAST QUESTION WITH THIS UPDATE IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING EAST, HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, SO WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW THEN
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, ANOTHER
IMPULSE AND BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND A SWATH OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS WAVE, THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN A FREEZING RAIN
SIGNAL, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HOURS OF ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE TO MELT HYDROMETEORS WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, WE HAVE
SEEN MULTIPLE TIMES ALREADY THIS WINTER THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN TO LEAD TO SURFACE IMPACTS. WE HAVE
INCREASED MESSAGING FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE
NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR A LOW CHANCE OF
A GLAZE OF ICE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL.
AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUESDAY, WE GET A BRIEF
REPRIEVE AND WARMUP, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 30S. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THEN QUICKLY SLIDES ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT GETS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE, INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING A LIGHT SNOW EVENT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES,
AS INTERNAL PROBABILITIES BASED ON THE GRIDDED FORECAST GIVE A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER, AS
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND LAPSE RATES THAT WE CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME BANDED SNOWFALL, WHICH GETS WASHED OUT IN BLENDED
PROBABILITIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE ARE EXPECTING A
LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST, TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FAVORED,
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS JUNCTURE IS QUITE LOW. UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHEN NBM 25TH/75TH
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE QUITE A LARGE SPREAD DUE TO
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING SPLIT ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
CANADIAN AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE ADDED A PROB30
FOR LIGHT FZRA AT KMOT. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN THE KXWA, KBIS, OR KJMS TAFS AT THIS
TIME. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FROM KMOT TO KJMS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THIS COULD
EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST, BUT IT COULD ALSO END UP BEING A VFR
CEILING OR A SCATTERED MVFR DECK ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ON TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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