053
FXUS63 KBIS 061539
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, RANGING FROM
COOLEST NORTHEAST TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A MODEST AREA OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREK
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A MIX OF SNOW, SOME
SLEET, AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. UPDATED POPS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE, WE
DO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ASOS/AWOS VISIBILITIES FROM
AREAS OF FOG, ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS REVEAL VISIBILITIES ARE NOT
CONSISTENTLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE VERY LOW STRATUS AND SUBSEQUENT FOG HAVE BEEN RETREATING
BACK TO THE NORTH, SO WOULD EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
ND, THUS EXPANDED FLURRY MENTIONS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CURRENTLY, A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY IS PRODUCING FLURRIES OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND. WHILE CAMS SUGGEST
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE FALLEN APART BY NOW, REALITY SUGGESTS IT'S
LIKELY TO KEEP GOING FOR A BIT. THEREFORE, INTRODUCED FLURRY
MENTIONS UNTIL MID-MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL THAT VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXES IN AS IT HEADS
FURTHER EAST. EITHER WAY, PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED TO
BECOME MEASURABLE, THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
CLOSER TO THE ND/SD BORDER, A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, OVERALL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW IN THE SOUTH AS WELL.
THEREFORE, EXPECT FEW TO NO IMPACTS FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY FALL
OUT OF THE SKY IN THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LAST NOTE FOR THIS
MORNING IS THAT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
ND AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, BASED ON AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND COMPONENT
AND GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY TO
BECOME DENSE AGAIN AS IT HAS IN SOME PREVIOUS DAYS. MORE LIKELY,
MOST LOCATIONS WHERE FOG DEVELOPS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME LIMITED
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS INSTEAD.
BEYOND THIS MORNING, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
OTHER THAN A CURRENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, THERE IS ALWAYS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SQUEEZING A FEW FLAKES
OR DROPS OUT OF THE SPONGE SOMETIME THIS WORKWEEK. OF GREATER
NOTE IS THE CONTINUED PATTERN OF COOLER (BUT ABOVE AVERAGE)
TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND MUCH WARMER (WELL ABOVE AVERAGE)
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY IS FAVORED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OVERALL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. WHILE A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS PRESENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
EASTERN ND THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK
IS CLOSE TO BOTH KXWA AND KMOT. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS STRATUS
DECK EVOLVES, INCONSISTENT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. AS IS COMMON NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK, KXWA VISIBILITY FROM FOG KEEPS BOUNCING AROUND
AND HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/2SM. THEREFORE, COVERED THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONCE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND FOG DISSIPATES LATER TODAY, VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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