594
FXUS63 KBIS 062343
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, RANGING FROM
COOLEST NORTHEAST TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SATELLITE SHOWING A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF ALTO/CIRROSTRATUS EMINATING OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE JUST BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS AT THE SURFACE INTO THE FORECAST. STILL SOME SIGNS OF
FOG UNDERNEATH LOW STRATUS ACROSS BOTTINEAU, ROLETTE, AND PIERCE
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF FOSTER,
STUTSMAN, AND LAMOURE COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS SHOULD CLEAR WITH
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COULD HELP MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS WITH MIST/FOG
THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WAS
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE AFTERNOON,
EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN. LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT WE CONTINUE TO
SEE THE CLOUD DECK SLOWLY RECEDING NORTH. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN WAVE HAS BEEN PUSHING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CEILINGS ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL CAMS RUNS
WANT TO BRING IN ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
WE ARE CARRYING A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW, AND WILL MONITOR
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING IN CASE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
20S, AND WITH WINDS STAYING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, THINKING FOG WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT. THE ECMWF
EFI HAS A NOTABLE SHIFT OF TAILS AND TILT TOWARDS THE UPPER END
OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE DID
UTILIZE THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS. MIGHT
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH OF A BOOST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO BE MORE
WESTERLY, WHICH FAVORS DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING WINDS, SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS END UP OVERACHIEVING, ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER
30S FAR NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY, DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST, BEFORE A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NBM MENTIONABLE
POPS ARE LIMITED TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT, GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS FOR LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF ANY REAL
ACCUMULATION IS VERY LOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTH,
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR SIGNS OF A FLIP BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE BACK HALF OF JANUARY, BASED ON SIGNALS IN
VARIOUS LONG- RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PREVAILING 15,000
TO 20,000 FT CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT TO EAST OF KJMS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG/MIST THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THIS TO ERODE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, INCREASING CLOSER TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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