321
FXUS63 KBIS 071459
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK THAT ARE
COOLER NORTHEAST TO WARMER SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED FOR SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START
NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BEING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
RAP-BASED SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CASE WE START SEEING GROUND TRUTH OF
PRECIPITATION IN MONTANA. BLENDED IN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS IN THE
FORECAST TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
OVERALL DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN
NORTHEASTERN ND TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMING RECENTLY, AND WITH GOOD WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS PROGGED AT THE SURFACE, CONTINUED WITH THE PRIOR
SHIFT IN USING NBM75 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
COULD BE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ENOUGH TO WHERE THEY
SHOULDN'T HINDER HIGHS MUCH, IF AT ALL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A COOLING TREND IS ON TAP AS
POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AS
A RESULT, THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST BRINGS THE RETURN OF NEAR-
AVERAGE HIGHS BY SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE RETURN OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN, THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST VERSUS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST.
OTHER THAN A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, A COUPLE HI-RES
MODELS BRING LIGHT RETURNS THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE, DEPENDING ON TIMING, SUSPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A FEW FLURRIES SHOULD ANYTHING FALL. AS A
RESULT, LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEST OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
NBM PUT 20 POPS MAINLY IN BOWMAN COUNTY, WHICH SEEMS ADEQUATE
FOR NOW.
FOR FRIDAY, MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER
THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO MINNESOTA AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A
CUT-OFF LOW WHILE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND MAYBE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
FOR THE STATE AT THIS TIME. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
ONCE AGAIN, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KTS, ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS
WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH POCKETS IN CENTRAL ND AT TIMES THIS
EVENING AS WELL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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