212
FXUS63 KBIS 080019
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
THAT ARE COOLER NORTHEAST TO WARMER SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF
COOLDOWN TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO START NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BEING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AT 6 PM CST, AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM AROUND
KENMARE TO BAKER, MT, MOVING EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS
EVENING AND ALSO SLOWED THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN ALIGNMENT
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS ABOUT TO
MOVE OVER AN AREA WITH SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES
IN WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03" RAIN, SO IF THIS WERE TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER IMPACTFUL
FREEZING RAIN EVENT, ALBEIT ON A SMALLER SCALE. A FEW CAMS DO
STILL SHOW SNOW AS A POSSIBLE TYPE, BUT THIS IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IN
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ANALYZED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN, BUT RAP-BASED SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
A SECONDARY LOW CROSSING THE MT/ND STATE LINE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW, RADAR RETURNS HAVE BECOME A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 7K FEET. MESOANALYSIS PAGE HIGHLIGHTS
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS
AREA, WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT IN
RECENT RUNS WITH AT LEAST A SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY LOW, SO WE DID ADD IN BROAD
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, EXPECTING P-TYPES TO
START AS RAIN (OR POTENTIALLY JUST SPRINKLES WITH HOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE), BEFORE WE INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX IN
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
A MIXED BAG OF WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE BY THE TIME
THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES, BUT ALL DO SHOW A WARM NOSE THAT WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN / FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE, DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OVERALL IS LOW,
ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA DID
END UP SWITCHING TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM
THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE EVEN ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS ON SURFACES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WE START TO SEE MORE NOTABLE FORECAST CHANGES, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN TROUGH DIVES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO
THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
PATTERN. AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP ON SATURDAY, BREEZY WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST, AND WRAPAROUND,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
COOL DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ARE TO
THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.
THE COOLDOWN DOES NOT LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
FAVOR BROAD RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO START
NEXT WEEK. NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SHOW RELATIVELY SMALL
SPREAD FOR THIS LEAD TIME AND GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE WE START TO SEE SIGNS OF A COOL DOWN AND POTENTIALLY SOME
SNOW CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
KDIK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF
KXWA AND KMOT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN COULD
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF KMOT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
IMPACT KXWA THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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