992
FXUS63 KBIS 081746
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1146 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- OCCASIONAL LOW SNOW CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) FOR A FEW PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER NEXT WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY UPDATE IS FOR
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED SO FAR THIS MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. MADE SOME
MINOR SKY CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER, WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST
IOWA. HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA NUDGING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES MODEST TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WITH A FEW NOTED SHORT WAVES.
FOR TODAY, A RATHER QUIET BUT COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN THE MEANTIME, AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK PUSHING OVER THE
ROCKIES, AND STARTING TO CLOSE OFF OVER ITS SOUTHERN END.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING WILL
REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT SOME LOW CHANCES
(~20 PERCENT) WILL GRAZE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
ON FRIDAY, MAIN WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING BREEZY. UPPER
LOW THEN STARTS TO CLOSE OFF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA MOVING OVER MINNESOTA. SOME SNOW WITH THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (~20 PERCENT).
A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THEN SPREADS
EASTERLY INTO OUR AREA TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. A VARIETY OF
SHORT WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE ALONG THE FACE OF THE
RIDGE IN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK (20 TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS LOW VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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