783
FXUS63 KBIS 082018
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
218 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL LOW SNOW CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) FOR A FEW PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS COULD BE FOUND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER NEXT WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT IS
PART OF A BROADER SPLIT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. BRIEF CALMING WINDS COULD ALSO HELP
PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS FOG FORMATION, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SIMILAR LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT. THIS WAVE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS FRONT
COULD BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. PRESSURE RISES LOOK
MINIMAL, YET THERE COULD BE A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW TO
MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK ELEVATED, YET MAY BE TOUGH TO MIX
THESE WINDS DOWN. FOR NOW LEFT IN NBM WIND FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
GUST FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF COOLING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTH TO 30S SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST. THE EXCEPTION FOR THIS
WILL BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, WHICH THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE
NORTH. SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST, PERHAPS
BRINGING COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S. COOLING TREND
WILL HIT A MINIMUM SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE 20S ARE FORECAST. THE MENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IMPROVING
WIND CHILL VALUES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST.
BRIEF RIDGING COULD WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
A WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY.
PERHAPS PROVIDING FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW, ALTHOUGH CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS DRY.
CLUSTERS THEN BUILD A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US
COAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IN MOST CLUSTER SCENARIOS THE
RESULT FOR NORTH DAKOTA IS MILD NORTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS FLOW
COULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS. MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO RETURN
WITH THIS FLOW WITH MINIMAL SPREADS IN THE NBM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES SPREADS BECOME
LARGER, WITH A COOLING TREND STARTING TO BE HINTED. THIS WOULD
DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE MENTIONED WESTERN RIDGE AND IF COOLER
AIR CAN FILTER INTO THE STATE. WITH THIS COOLER AIR COULD COME
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW. OVERALL THIS IS WORTH
MONITORING, BUT CLUSTERS STILL HINTING IN A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS LOW VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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