769
FXUS63 KBIS 090620
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, BECOMING HIGHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WINDIER CONDITIONS AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SOME LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. RADAR AND
WEBCAMS SHOW FLURRIES FALLING IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND IS UNLIKELY TO EXPAND MUCH
FARTHER NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. WE
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW RATHER STRONG LIFT IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS FROM DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION, Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE, AND LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS MOVING FROM FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY, AND THIS FORCING IS
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. BUT
AN ANTECEDENT LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST
FORCING COULD BE A DETRIMENT TO SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. CAMS
DO CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AND BOTH THE
HRRR AND RAP SIMULATE A QUICK MOVING BURST OF MODERATE SNOWFALL
WITH THE 700-500 MB VORT MAX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF IT WASN'T FOR THE DRIER AIR ALOFT,
THINK WE'D BE LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER EVENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THIS UPDATE WE INTRODUCED
AND/OR EXPANDED LOW CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD, SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA TO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NBM ONLY HAS A 5 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER THIS TIME FRAME,
BUT RECENT CAMS WOULD SUGGEST A LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF LIGHTLY
FALLING SNOW FROM AROUND SIDNEY, MT TO BOWMAN AND HETTINGER,
WITH ENSEMBLE SNOW RATIO PROJECTIONS AROUND 15:1 TO 20:1. NO
OTHER INGREDIENTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING ARE FORECAST TO BE
PRESENT, WHICH GIVES US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER AMOUNTS. BUT
THINK AT LEAST A WIDESPREAD DUSTING TO HALF INCH IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT IS
PART OF A BROADER SPLIT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. BRIEF CALMING WINDS COULD ALSO HELP
PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS FOG FORMATION, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SIMILAR LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT. THIS WAVE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS FRONT
COULD BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. PRESSURE RISES LOOK
MINIMAL, YET THERE COULD BE A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW TO
MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK ELEVATED, YET MAY BE TOUGH TO MIX
THESE WINDS DOWN. FOR NOW LEFT IN NBM WIND FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
GUST FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF COOLING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTH TO 30S SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST. THE EXCEPTION FOR THIS
WILL BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, WHICH THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE
NORTH. SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST, PERHAPS
BRINGING COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S. COOLING TREND
WILL HIT A MINIMUM SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE 20S ARE FORECAST. THE MENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IMPROVING
WIND CHILL VALUES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST.
BRIEF RIDGING COULD WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
A WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY.
PERHAPS PROVIDING FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW, ALTHOUGH CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS DRY.
CLUSTERS THEN BUILD A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US
COAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IN MOST CLUSTER SCENARIOS THE
RESULT FOR NORTH DAKOTA IS MILD NORTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS FLOW
COULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS. MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO RETURN
WITH THIS FLOW WITH MINIMAL SPREADS IN THE NBM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES SPREADS BECOME
LARGER, WITH A COOLING TREND STARTING TO BE HINTED. THIS WOULD
DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE MENTIONED WESTERN RIDGE AND IF COOLER
AIR CAN FILTER INTO THE STATE. WITH THIS COOLER AIR COULD COME
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW. OVERALL THIS IS WORTH
MONITORING, BUT CLUSTERS STILL HINTING IN A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE STATE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT, AND FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. OTHER THAN MID TO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT KBIS, KXWA, AND KDIK WHERE A PROB30 MENTION WAS
INCLUDED, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES REMAINS LOW. LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS ON FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JJS/HOLLAN
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