171
FXUS63 KBIS 091246
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM (~20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON SATURDAY.
- SWIFT WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NARROW AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTERLY THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA BORDER. HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO NEW MEXICO, CLOSING OFF ON ITS
SOUTHERN END. OVER OUR AREA, A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT
WITH THIS BAND, BUT VISIBILITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A MILE OR TWO
AT TIMES AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
FOR TODAY, ONGOING BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS
THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, DISSIPATING AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THEREAFTER, A RATHER UNSETTLED DAY IS ON TAP AS AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER OUR AREA, TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW, MAINLY
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPS THROUGH BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO MINNESOTA. WITH THAT ALL SAID, ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST WITH
COLDER AIR DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
ON SATURDAY, A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR REMAINS OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCATIONS, AND WARMER AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, WHILE SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE PUSHING AROUND 30S
FOR HIGHS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR THEN SWIFTLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH NBM SPREADS CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
PATTERN THEN BECOMES A BIT ACTIVE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATING A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST CHANCES FOR THIS COME
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING LOW CHANCES (20 TO
30 PERCENT) OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES COME
LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. SPEAKING OF
LATER IN THE WEEK, NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS INCREASE, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT AREAS OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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