069
FXUS63 KBIS 100050
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM (~20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
MAINLY WESTERN, AND SOME OF CENTRAL, NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST.
- NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY.
- SWIFT WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MODIFIED POPS FOR THIS EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT RADAR RETURNS
AND LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS WHERE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED. CLOUD
COVER WAS ALSO TWEAKED. OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
CAA COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE MID
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL THEN SEE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WEST INTERACTING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
JET DYNAMICS TO BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST TOMORROW BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL ND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE AND PUSH OF
MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES IN ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS, WHILE STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WESTERN PORTIONS.
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT WILL SEE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS. MEANWHILE, COLD
YET MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE HIGH IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR LOWS CLOSE TO THIS
HIGH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WHILE WESTERN
AREAS SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. LINGERING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
COULD BRING SOME COLD WINDS CHILLS TONIGHT, YET WARMER THAN
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS STALLED FRONT TURNS INTO A
WEAK ELEVATED WARM FRONT SATURDAY, AND MOVES EASTWARD. ALONG
THIS FRONT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE, WEAK RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BRINGING A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS, WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE WEST 20S AND LOWER 30S. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH, WITH
THE NBM CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH CURRENTLY 10 TO 40%. THERE IS
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT.
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS MODEST AND MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. THUS
SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, YET UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THESE. RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH SNOW CHANCES
SATURDAY EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO EAST TO THE TEENS AND 20S WEST. WINDS LOOK TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, LIMITING THE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL THREAT. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE FOUND
ON SUNDAY, WITH A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST, TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK SEES NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLING ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL FILTER IN MILD AIR AS WELL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
CURRENT FORECAST SEES HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST COULD EVEN SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK STILL SEES A LARGE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PASSAGE OF A LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
WEST. CPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER POSSIBLE
LATER NEXT WEEK PERHAPS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS A RESULT OF
THIS PATTERN. WILL BE WORTH MONITORING WHERE THE HIGH AND TROUGH
SET UP. THIS TROUGH COULD ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK IT TAKES THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z
FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WEST AND CENTRAL, WITH
LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SLIGHT/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW AND MVFR
AT BOTH KXWA AND KDIK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING,
DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...NH
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