787
FXUS63 KBIS 101449
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY WESTERN, AND SOME OF
CENTRAL, NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.
- NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
- SWIFT WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
OVERALL LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS, ALTHOUGH IS
STARTING TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED. WITH MORE SNOW PRESENT
UPSTREAM IN MONTANA, MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE
TIME OF THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLING OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME, CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, ALBEIT SPORADICALLY AS ANALYSIS REVEALS FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 1KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
REVEAL A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH, ALONG WITH THE
ANTICIPATED 850MB FG FORCING, REMAINS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY WITH THIS
UPDATE, AS IT REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AS A CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR
MERIDIONAL FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A VORT MAX
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST,
SOUTH CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, PROMOTING
LIGHT SNOWFALL. PRECPITATION HAS BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC AS DRY
NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS PERSIST. LATER THIS MORNING, A
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT,
BROADLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE WEST, AS NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
850MB FG FORCING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WHERE THIS DOES DEVELOP, PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME
LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH
OVERALL (LOW CHANCE). CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ARE THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS A MODERATE 850MB JET DEVELOPS. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WE CAN
STILL ANTICIPATE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE COOL AIR
MASS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, UP TO THE UPPER 30S THE
LOW 40S IN THE WARM SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN, A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE THERMAL AXIS IS ALLOWED TO PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL FALL A GRADIENT FROM A COOLER NORTHEAST TO
WARMER SOUTHWEST, FORECAST FROM AROUND FREEZING UP TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY, AND FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S ON
MONDAY. WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SKIM ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA DURING THE PM ON SUNDAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES FAR THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST, SHORTWAVE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO
CUT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD, THE
ENSEMBLE CURRENTLY ADVERTISES THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL
PRIMARILY AS LIGHT RAIN. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DURING THIS PERIOD REVEAL THAT SATURATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE FIRST 1-2 KM OF THE COLUMN DURING THIS
PERIOD, WHICH INDICATES THAT MORE OF A DRIZZLE COULD BE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED,
THIS DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
MINORITY CLUSTER (APPROXIMATELY 15 PERCENT OF MODEL MEMBERS)
THAT FAVORS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN DOES
EXIST. IN THIS SCENARIO, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING. OTHERWISE, A TRANSITION TO MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WOULD REPRESENT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF COOLING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY, AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 40S
ON WEDNESDAY (AGAIN, ON A WITH A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST).
A RELATIVELY DEEP WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROMOTING LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COOL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
FALL INITIALLY AS A RAIN- SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GENERALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SNOWFALL ITSELF SHOULD BE LIGHT, IT MAY
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH OF SNOW OVERALL, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE (APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT) FOUND OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
CYCLE, THE PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
EXCEED 45 MPH IS AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WITH A MODERATELY
STRONG 55 TO 60 KT JET DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD, WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CHANCES INCREASE AS WE HEAD MOVE INTO THE EARLY WEEK. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MOVING FORWARD. OTHERWISE, THE COOLING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO
UPPER 20S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISCORDANT BEYOND THIS PERIOD
AS MODEL MEMBERS STRUGGLE TO RECONCILE BOTH THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A HUDSON BAY
LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THREE POTENTIAL
SCENARIOS: A WARM AND DRY SCENARIO THAT CAPTURES A STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE AND STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW, KEEPING FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MORE NORTHWESTERLY (55 PERCENT OF MEMBERS) 2) A
COOL AND WET SCENARIO THAT FAVORS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE AND A
WEAK HUDSON BAY LOW THAT KEEPS STRICTLY MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND (30 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP) 3)
A COOL AND DRY SCENARIO THAT FAVORS A WEAK BLOCKING RIDGE AND
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW THAT PROMOTES WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS (15 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP). THE "WARM"
SCENARIO FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AGAIN WITH A
STRONG NE TO SW GRADIENT, WHILE THE "COOL" SCENARIOS ARE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE "WET" SCENARIO
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW SNOW BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NOTABLY, THE UNDERLYING ENSEMBLE FAMILIES REMAIN
FAIRLY WELL DISPERSED BETWEEN THESE THREE SCENARIOS, WHICH
REALLY HIGHLIGHTS THE GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING, PROMOTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KDIK,
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW AT KXWA AND KDIK. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ARE ANTICIPATED WHEN SNOW FALLS, THOUGH SOME MORE MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD DROP VISIBILITIES INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THIS,
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE REORGANIZING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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