208
FXUS63 KBIS 110021
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK. INCREASED SKY
COVER FOR TONIGHT WITH A BKN-OVC AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. LACK OF ANY REPORTS ALSO LED ME TO
REMOVE FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, IN ADDITION TO
LACK OF ANY FORCING. A FEW CAMS HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL,
SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING,
WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EAST TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST AND PERHAPS IN
SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN GET PUSHED OUT BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT KEEPING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT, YET DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE EAST WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO. WHILE TEENS AND
20S ARE FOUND IN THE WEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE FOUND TONIGHT BEFORE A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND FORMS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT
TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH A DRY AND
MILD WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH PERHAPS A
BREEZY WESTERLY WIND. NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THIS IS MAINLY FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, OUTSIDE
OF OUR CWA. THIS DRY AND STEADY WESTERLY FLOW THEN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MILD LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 20S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CLIP
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH A DRY
FORECAST CURRENTLY PREVAILING.
NEXT WEEK, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN US IS
STILL FORECAST TO START THE WEEK, BREAKDOWN SOMETIME MID WEEK,
THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS WESTERN HIGH WILL GREAT INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH MAY BE MOSTLY FELT
TEMPERATURE WISE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. OF NOTE FOR
MONDAY ARE HIGH ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATING PERHAPS NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES, YET STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALSO INDICATED IN ECMWF EFI VALUES. WEAK
WAVES AND FRONTS IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR WINDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON
TUESDAY, WHICH IS ALSO HINTED AT THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST BEING
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE THE HIGH
REDEVELOP MORE OFF THE WESTERN US COAST, WHICH COULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A LARGER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AND PERHAPS SOME COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
FOUND ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR OVER
AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND 10 TO 30%. A MORE DEVELOP FRONT MAY ALSO
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY. BOTH NBM AND THE ECMWF
EFI VALUES ARE STARTING TO SHOW THIS AS A THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DAY IN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY WINDS. AFTER A MILD DAY ON
THURSDAY, HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY BE IN THE 20S, WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOW LONG DOES THE COLDER AIR LAST ACROSS THE STATE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. MODEL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH BOTH THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A
PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A HUDSON BAY LOW. RECALL FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SPLIT
BETWEEN THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS: A WARM AND DRY SCENARIO THAT
CAPTURES A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE AND STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW,
KEEPING FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MORE NORTHWESTERLY (55
PERCENT OF MEMBERS) 2) A COOL AND WET SCENARIO THAT FAVORS A
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE AND A WEAK HUDSON BAY LOW THAT KEEPS
STRICTLY MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (30 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP) 3) A COOL AND DRY SCENARIO THAT
FAVORS A WEAK BLOCKING RIDGE AND STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW THAT
PROMOTES WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS (15
PERCENT MEMBERSHIP). THE "WARM" SCENARIO FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AGAIN WITH A STRONG NE TO SW GRADIENT,
WHILE THE "COOL" SCENARIOS ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE "WET" SCENARIO COULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF NEW SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOTABLY, THE
UNDERLYING ENSEMBLE FAMILIES REMAIN FAIRLY WELL DISPERSED
BETWEEN THESE THREE SCENARIOS, WHICH REALLY HIGHLIGHTS THE GREAT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LOW VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, BKN-OVC UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS, TRENDING FEW-SCT FOR SUNDAY AFTER 12Z. A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING MOST TERMINALS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ADAM/ANGLIN
AVIATION...NH
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