314
FXUS63 KBIS 111536
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (40 TO 60 PERCENT).
- BECOMING WINDY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES, NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS, WHILE A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TODAY, MAIN STORY IS WARMER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST,
LEADING TO A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER OUR
AREA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, PASSING MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THAT SAID,
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
BUT THE CHANCES FOR THAT REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE (20 TO 30
PERCENT). THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH/EAST RESULTING IN INCREASING
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS US BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS, BUT NEVERTHELESS IT STILL WILL BE A WINDY PERIOD
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE
WELL NOTED AS WARMER AIRMASS RETREATS SOME AS COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THEREFORE, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, WHILE 40S EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THAT SAID,
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOLER AIR CAN ACTUALLY
GO, AS NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREAS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE 25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SNOW (POSSIBLY SOME DAYTIME RAIN)
CHANCES TO THE AREA (GREATEST OVER OUR EAST OF ABOUT 40 TO 60
PERCENT), BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN, AND
LATEST ECMWF EFI SUGGEST LESS THAN HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS.
THEREFORE, WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE IN THE LATEST HWO.
TO END THE WEEK, TEMPERATURE FORECAST GETS A BIG SKETCHY WITH
NBM 25TH-75TH TEMPERATURE SPREADS BEING ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN TODAY, LINGERING INTO TONIGHT
OVER A FEW AREAS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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