484
FXUS63 KBIS 120011
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (40 TO 60 PERCENT).
- BECOMING WINDY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS PRODUCT
ISSUANCE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VARIABLE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENTLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TILT. THERE'S A SLIGHT RIDGE AXIS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TILT WILL
KEEP THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVED THROUGH TODAY, LEAVING BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S TO 50S.
MONDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR JANUARY. MONDAY NIGHT A PASSING CLIPPER WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, AND SWEEP DOWN A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, WILL
NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES MUCH, IT WILL JUST CREATE ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP THE NBM WINDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS PERIOD. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH, WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD FEATURE THE NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, THE ECMWF EFI SUGGEST LESS THAN HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS FOR NOW.
A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW THE WEEK WILL END.
WITH THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM THE MODELS VARY, AND IT IS EVEN
AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE LOWER 30S FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THE NEWEST DETERMINISTIC NBM RUN HAS KEYED IN ON THE LOWER END
OF THAT RANGE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE NBM TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND MID 20S FRIDAY, WHICH IS WHY THE PRECIP IS ONLY SNOW NOW.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH, EITHER WAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, DECREASING
SOME TONIGHT, BUT INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
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