033
FXUS63 KBIS 121753
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1153 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THOUGH HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE IN THE EAST.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCES
MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(60 TO 70 PERCENT) ARE CURRENTLY THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THEN LIKELY VERY WINDY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE THR FORCAST ON LAT THIS MORNING. THE
NEWEST NBM HAS BEEN LOADED INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 841 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A QUIET MORNING WEATHER-WISE CONTINUES. VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE
THIS MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST CONUS RIDGE RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THOUGH EASTERN ND MAY BE MORE
SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH, A SERIES OF TROUGHS
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MAY PUSH MUCH OF THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST, AND THUS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE COLDER SIDE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT AS REPRESENTED BY
MASSIVE NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM
SATURDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THE
RIDGE WIND UP A BIT FURTHER EAST, THEN MORE OF THE STATE WILL
WIND UP WARMER VERSUS COOLER. HOWEVER, IF IT PUSHES FURTHER
WEST, THEN MORE OF THE STATE WILL WIND UP COOLER VERSUS WARMER.
OF COURSE, ALSO IMPACTING EXACT VALUES AND THE DURATION OF ANY
COOLER SPELL WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SURFACE SYSTEMS.
FOR TODAY, WENT ALONG WITH WESTERN NEIGHBORS AND LOWERED
DEWPOINTS, AND THUS RH VALUES, IN WESTERN ND. THIS WILL MATCH
THINGS UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH HOW YESTERDAY PLAYED OUT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY MORNING, CAMS BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH PARTS OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. DID ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. EVEN
IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR, WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE, IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE NBM PRODUCES HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PERHAPS WITH
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLIER ON), TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS PUSHES THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60 TO 70 PERCENT) ARE
CURRENTLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK, WINDS ARE THE OTHER STORY. INITIALLY, BREEZY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN WESTERN ND LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON
TUESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
CAA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WINDS SEEM LESS LIKELY TO
OVERPERFORM THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST. THE BIGGEST EXCEPTION
SEEMS POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN ND WHERE THERE COULD BE A CAA PUSH
ALONG WITH MODERATE PRESSURE RISES TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, BY
THEN THE GRADIENT MAY BE LOOSENING ANYWAYS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AREN'T COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT YET, BUT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OR ELSE EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT NBM FORECASTS SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL ND, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS BACKED UP
BY THE LATEST EFI WHICH GENERALLY MAINTAINS VALUES OF .8 TO .9
WITH LIMITED SHIFT OF TAILS. THIS INDICATES VERY STRONG WINDS
ARE LIKELY, BUT ALSO THAT THEY ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORED TO BE
ANYTHING EXTRAORDINARY. NEVERTHELESS, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS EFI VALUES HAVE
INCREASED RAPIDLY ON OCCASION FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
TO GUSTING NEAR 35KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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