977
FXUS63 KBIS 130009
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THOSE HIGHEST
CHANCES (60 PERCENT) ARE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- BECOMING WINDY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN VERY WINDY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT, DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE IMPULSE AND COLD FROPA. OPTED TO EXPAND POPS A BIT BASED
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS, TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID, AS
THE STRONGER CAA DOESN'T ARRIVE TILL OVERNIGHT INTO TUE DAYTIME
MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME UNIDIRECTIONALLY DRIVEN
WIND GUSTS.
MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUANCE WAS TO POPS AND
SKY COVER, WITH MINIMAL EDITS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENTLY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AROUND AN AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT
THE SURFACE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SITS IN CENTRAL CANADA, AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
THE WEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY ARE BRINGING THE WARMING CHINOOK
WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MONTANA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY WITH OUR FORECAST HIGHS NEARING
50.
TONIGHT THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN WYOMING. WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING, WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-
ADVISORY LEVEL. RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY WITH THIS WARM CHINOOK FLOW. THOSE ARE LOW TEMPERATURES
THAT DON'T DROP AS FAR. IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE COLLIDE, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE
WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 2PM CT AND THEN START TO DIE DOWN.
WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE STATE UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SAME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HIGH. WITH
THIS NORTHERN FLOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE WEST WILL BE IN THE
LOW 40S AND THE EAST IN THE LOW 20S, STILL ABOVE NORMAL
GENERALLY. THURSDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY, THIS
TIME WITH MUCH HIGHER SNOW CHANCES. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MOST
OF FRIDAY. A PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FEEDING THE WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AS DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE US ON
THE WARM OR COLD SIDE OF THE NORTHERN FLOW. RIGHT NOW, THE NBM
HAS BEEN KEEPING US IN THE COLDER SIDE, LEAVING US WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE ALMOST 30 DEGREES
STILL.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARMER 850MB WILL SLIDE BACK LATE SATURDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO 30.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS THEN INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTING
UPWARDS TO 35KTS. COLD FRONT RETROGRADES WESTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, WITH AN AREA OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
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