005
FXUS63 KBIS 131141
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THEN VERY WINDY THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH HIGHER CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) ARE ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ON THE BOWMAN RADAR,
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MORNING EXPECTATIONS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, AND TEMPERATURES. FIRST, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY, THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO WINDS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW, MAYBE WITH SOME RAIN
MIXED IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN CENTRAL ND.
THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THEN LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
IN REGARD TO WINDS TODAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE
FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, OR THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPING
TO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO OBVIOUS
STRONG CAA NOR PRESSURE RISES DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE BEST
PRESSURE RISES PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. WITHOUT BEING DURING THE BEST MIXING
HOURS AND WITH A LACK OF STRONG CAA, FEEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED STRONGER
GUSTS AREN'T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THESE WINDS WILL PLAY
OUT. EFI VALUES HAVE INCREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT (THOUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON) RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER, LIMITED DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PRODUCES
MARGINAL PRESSURE RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AND AS OF NOW,
THE PRESSURE BUBBLE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING ISN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY DOESN'T ALIGN
WITH THE BEST CAA. THAT SAID, DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE VERY
LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE TO TRUST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND RAISE
WIND GUST MESSAGING, INCLUDING IN THE HWO, TO 55 MPH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SEEMINGLY FORCED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A JETSTREAK, LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
MOST PART, TOTAL RAIN SHOULD BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
HOWEVER, UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW, POSSIBLY
WITH RAIN MIXED IN EARLY, LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
CENTRAL ND. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDIER SYSTEM TO FINISH OUT THE
WORKWEEK, SNOW CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY,
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS PROGGED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE TOTAL SNOW SEEMS
LIMITED, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTION WHILE SNOW IS FALLING DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS
PRESENTLY FORECAST.
FINALLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH EASTERN ND WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND THAT REMAINS A CRAPSHOOT. A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY BEYOND WHAT IT CURRENTLY
IS THUS PUTTING MOST OF THE REGION INTO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, JUST HOW FAR WEST THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS
PUSHED WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW COOL THINGS BECOME AND THE
DURATION OF ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEVERTHELESS, NBM ENSEMBLE
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS REMAIN EXTREMELY LARGE, ESPECIALLY
FOR CENTRAL ND WHERE BISMARCK'S SPREAD FOR A HIGH ON SATURDAY IS
FROM 8 TO 37 DEGREES. SPREADS FURTHER EAST AND WEST ARE CLOSER
TO 20 DEGREES, WITH EASTERN TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE LOWER
OVERALL, AND WESTERN (ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN) WARMER OVERALL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
POCKETS OF LLWS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
ND. HOWEVER, ANY RESIDUAL LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE INCREASING. THESE SURFACE WINDS
WILL TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS, AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS,
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, WITH BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR VISIBILITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE THAT A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOW
LEVEL STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND WEST AND SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THESE
CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THIS EVENING, THOUGH IFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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