968
FXUS63 KBIS 291505
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
905 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK,
THEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO
MAINLY IN PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MORE LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FROM CANADA, SO WE
EXPANDED POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY FULLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CURRENTLY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS,
AND ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CONTINUES TO FORCE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT ALSO IN TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST, WHERE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. OBSERVED
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 MILES, HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL DIPS BELOW WHEN MORE ORGANIZED
RETURNS DEVELOP. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
ACCUMULATING, OVERALL RATES ARE USUALLY NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH PER HOUR.
OVERALL, THIS PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT,
THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. FOR ONE, CAA
ALOFT BECOMES MORE DOMINANT, WHICH HELPS STYMIE LIFT. SECOND,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERN/FAR
NORTHWESTERN ND IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, THIS
ORGANIZED SURFACE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER WEST AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD. WITH ALL THIS,
MAINTAINED 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER A VERY SIMILAR AREA AS
THIS PAST NIGHT (MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHWEST). THE
EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THAT NEW
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NBM AND NBM 5.0, WHICH KEEP THE
PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL INCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE AN ALBERT CLIPPER DEVELOPS AND SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. AS IT CLIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION KEEPS INCREASING WITH MOST
OF THE STATE SEEING A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW AT SOME
POINT SATURDAY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, THE NBM 5.0 IS MORE
BULLISH IN REGARD TO SNOW TOTALS WITH A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST AN INCH (VERY LOW CHANCES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE) EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO SEE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH.
BEING A CLIPPER STYLE SYSTEM, THERE WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUALLY SHOW A LACK OF SOLID CAA AND PRESSURE RISES (MAINLY
PRESSURE FALLS) WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS ALL WILL LIKELY LIMIT WINDS TO SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI COTEAU. NOT
TO MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS OCCASIONALLY CAN AND DO OVERPERFORM.
COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRESH SNOW, BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY. ONE FINAL
NOTE IS THE NBM, SUPPORTED BY GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS,
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOSS OF ICE THROUGH THE DGZ ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER WESTERN ND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS OF NOW ARE FAVORED TO
BE LIGHT, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND SATURDAY, EXPECT MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS OFF THE WESTERN,
CONUS RIDGE TO PASS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL HAVE SOME DAY TO
DAY VARIANCE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THOUGH AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE
ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NORTH AND
EAST. WIND CHILLS MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 20 EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, AND THEN
THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK, OVERALL, THE NBM IS STARTING TO
SETTLE ON A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION OVERALL COMPARED TO NBM
PROBABILITIES IN PRIOR DAYS. HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED DAY TO DAY BASED ON THE TIMING OF ANY RIDGING OR
TRAILING SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES MAINLY OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ND. OVERALL, SNOW REMAINS LIGHT WITH VISIBILITY UNDER FALLING
SNOW MOSTLY MVFR, THOUGH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE CURRENTLY LOW
VFR, THOUGH POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AND MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SNOW MAY COMPLETELY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE OF SNOW TONIGHT IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN/SMITH
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