320
FXUS63 KBIS 292039
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 90 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVING ON SHORE IN THE WEST COAST. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, LEADING TO NORTHERN FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT ARE PRESENT IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
TONIGHT, IT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE STATE. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM WATFORD CITY TO GLEN ULLIN TO LEMMON, SD. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH
OF SNOW THERE ARE 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD, STARTING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 35 BELOW FROM VERY LITTLE
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10AM FRIDAY. FRIDAY
ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 20
ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING.
FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KICK THAT HIGH PRESSURE OUT.
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE LINGERING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE
FORECAST FOR THIS KEEPS CHANGING EVERYDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS LOW, HOWEVER THE SIGNAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS OF NOW,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE LOW, BRINGING IN COLD AIR ALOFT TO
CREATE JUST SNOW ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 1 INCH. THE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH ARE 30 PERCENT
IN THE CENTRAL TO NEAR 60 PERCENT BETWEEN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND JAMESTOWN. FOR 2 INCHES IN THAT AREA IT DROPS BELOW 20
PERCENT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH CALM WINDS. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE
LIGHT SNOW. AFTER MONDAY THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE
COULD DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MVFR WEST TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ND. SCATTERED IFR CIGS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATER
IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-012-013.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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