822
FXUS63 KBIS 300029
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 90 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MESOLOW QUICKLY ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA, WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM
IMPULSE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE MOST NOTABLE
FORECAST CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WHERE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF LOW
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SKY COVER FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVING ON SHORE IN THE WEST COAST. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, LEADING TO NORTHERN FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT ARE PRESENT IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
TONIGHT, IT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE STATE. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM WATFORD CITY TO GLEN ULLIN TO LEMMON, SD. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH
OF SNOW THERE ARE 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD, STARTING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 35 BELOW FROM VERY LITTLE
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10AM FRIDAY. FRIDAY
ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 20
ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING.
FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KICK THAT HIGH PRESSURE OUT.
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE LINGERING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE
FORECAST FOR THIS KEEPS CHANGING EVERYDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS LOW, HOWEVER THE SIGNAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS OF NOW,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE LOW, BRINGING IN COLD AIR ALOFT TO
CREATE JUST SNOW ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 1 INCH. THE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH ARE 30 PERCENT
IN THE CENTRAL TO NEAR 60 PERCENT BETWEEN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND JAMESTOWN. FOR 2 INCHES IN THAT AREA IT DROPS BELOW 20
PERCENT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH CALM WINDS. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE
LIGHT SNOW. AFTER MONDAY THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE
COULD DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. SEPARATELY, A SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST TERMINALS
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS HIGHEST FROM AROUND KMOT TO KJMS WHERE A
PREVAILING MVFR CEILING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES, INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR CEILING TO HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR NOW. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL TURN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL THEN SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE NORTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-012-013.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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