669
FXUS63 KBIS 301000
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS
MORNING, WHILE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.
- WINDY SOUTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE FOUND THIS
WEEKEND, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA WILL PUSH AN
ARCTIC FRONT WESTWARD TODAY INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE OUT WEST. AS
IT DOES SO LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW MAY BE FOUND FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, WHILE SKIES CLEAR AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ACROSS THE EAST. AREAS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
THAT DO CLEAR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING, THUS LEFT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.
CLEARING SKIES MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH HOW FAR
WEST MAY BE AN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY TODAY. PERHAPS SOME LOW
CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ANY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD CAUSE FOR SOME FLURRIES TODAY. LOOK FOR COLDER
HIGHS TODAY WITH THIS ARCTIC PUSH, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO CENTRAL AND EAST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEST.
TONIGHT, THIS ARCTIC FRONT STALLS THEN IS LIFTED BACK EAST AS A
WARM FRONT FROM AN CLIPPER SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL GO ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY DELAY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE MENTIONED
ARCTIC HIGH. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FOUND TONIGHT
AS A RESULT OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. PERHAPS SOME NEAR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST AS A
RESULT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO, ALTHOUGH COULD WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WARM FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A
RESULT. WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS LOOK TO START OUT AS
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
ALL SNOW GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE, WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HREF FRAM
SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS MAINLY SATURDAY
MORNING PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
FOR WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS THAT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. DECIDED TO
KEEP THIS ADVISORY SIMPLE WITH ONE TIMING BLOCK, ALTHOUGH
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY START AND END EARLIER COMPARED TO CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA SEES ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW WITH
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE NBM SHOWING ABOUT 10 TO 40%
CHANCE FOR OVER 2 INCHES FOR SOME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS MENTIONED, DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY DELAY SNOW TIMING IN THE EAST
AS WELL PERHAPS LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY COULD BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WINTER PRODUCT AT THIS
TIME, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ECMWF EFI STILL FAIRLY
LOW ON THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY, WITH HREF MEANS
SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS. THUS NO WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED,
AND WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE
BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. MORE MILDER LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S CAN BE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW, BREEZY IN THE
EAST, THEN LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY. MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO 30S COULD LINGER. NBM CURRENTLY HAS A DRY FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A
FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW UNDER CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAY DRY. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO THE LOWER 20S WEST.
MOST CLUSTERS SHOW A MILD START TO FEBRUARY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST BRINGS MILD PACIFIC AIR IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. DEPENDING
HOW THIS RIDGE SETS UP THERE COULD BE WEAK WAVES IN THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES BRINING AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST. NBM CURRENTLY HAS
THESE CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND PERHAPS LATER IN THE
WEEK. INTERESTING TO NOTE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MAY ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY AS INDICATED IN THE LIMITED
SPREADS IN THE NBM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT. SOME BREEZY
WINDS MAY BE FOUND IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR STRONG WINDS IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING UP
IN THE ECMWF EFI VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. SEPARATELY, A SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS, AND A FEW
FLURRIES, TO MOST REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR TO PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN BE
FOUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL TURN THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL THEN SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST
/2 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-
040>045.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-012-013.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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