348
FXUS63 KBIS 302026
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
226 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST, AND SNOW IN THE EAST.
- BREEZY WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ANY OBJECTS, AND POSSIBLY CREATE BLOWING SNOW IN THE EAST.
PLAN ON VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN MONTANA IS CREATING STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM PAST THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THERE IS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING, AND
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
TONIGHT THAT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY WARM AIR,
TURNING IT INTO A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS CONNECTED TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WARMING WINDS WILL BE ALONG FRONT AND CREATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE ASCENT REGION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE
COLLOCATED WITH THIS, ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF WINTRY MIX MOVING
WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT. IT WILL MAINLY START AS FREEZING
RAIN IN THE WEST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, TO A LIGHT GLAZE IN THE EAST. THIS BAND OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW IN THE EAST WHERE THE COOLER AIR IS LOCATED. THE TRANSITION
ZONE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHWAY 83.
AS THE WARMER AIR CONTINUES IN THE WEST, RAIN WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE. PRETTY WILD FOR JANUARY AND A ALBERTA CLIPPER STORM.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH COOLER AIR BACK IN, CHANGING
THE WINTRY MIX IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST TO BE ALL SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING ON THE FREEZING RAIN STARTING IN THE
WEST TONIGHT IS AROUND MIDNIGHT, HITTING DICKINSON AROUND 5AM
MT, AND BISMARCK AROUND SUNRISE. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE MONTANA BORDER THROUGH HIGHWAY 83 TO COVER ALL
THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THAT WARM FRONT. THE WEST COULD GET TO
THE LOWER 40S, AND THE EAST RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THAT RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE.
THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW, LASTING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS
OF NOW. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH INFLUENCES THE WESTERN CONUS, PUTTING US BACK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
20KTS. TONIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL STARTING TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH 30KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO MOVE IN. IN THE LATE MORNING THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL RAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL, MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST
/2 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035-
040>046.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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