801
FXUS63 KBIS 310410
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
FREEZING RAIN ARE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD COMBINE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN TO PRODUCE
IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED OBJECTS, AND WITH
FALLING SNOW TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR NOT REVEALED ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM OUR CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
HAZARDOUS WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAMS' PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/SIMULATIONS PAIRED WITH
MODELED THERMAL PROFILE ANALYSES INDICATE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
VARYING AND MIXED HYDROMETEOR PHASES WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL
BAND. WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT, IT IS FAVORED TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HIGHWAY 85 IT COULD START TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO FULLY MELT
HYDROMETEORS. THE FREEZING LINE OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALOFT
FIELD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS MEANS THAT BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION PASSES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 LATE SATURDAY MORNING, IT COULD BE FALLING MORE AS
SNOW THAN FREEZING RAIN. THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL CAMS THAT
STRONGLY SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF SLEET BETWEEN THE SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. YET ANOTHER WILD CARD IN PRECIPITATION TYPES IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW AND LESS FREEZING RAIN. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTCOMES, THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS QUIET. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY IF
THESE TRENDS HOLD IN 00Z GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN MONTANA IS CREATING STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM PAST THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THERE IS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING, AND
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
TONIGHT THAT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY WARM AIR,
TURNING IT INTO A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS CONNECTED TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WARMING WINDS WILL BE ALONG FRONT AND CREATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE ASCENT REGION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE
COLLOCATED WITH THIS, ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF WINTRY MIX MOVING
WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT. IT WILL MAINLY START AS FREEZING
RAIN IN THE WEST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, TO A LIGHT GLAZE IN THE EAST. THIS BAND OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW IN THE EAST WHERE THE COOLER AIR IS LOCATED. THE TRANSITION
ZONE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHWAY 83.
AS THE WARMER AIR CONTINUES IN THE WEST, RAIN WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE. PRETTY WILD FOR JANUARY AND A ALBERTA CLIPPER STORM.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH COOLER AIR BACK
IN, CHANGING THE WINTRY MIX IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST TO BE ALL
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING ON THE FREEZING RAIN
STARTING IN THE WEST TONIGHT IS AROUND MIDNIGHT, HITTING
DICKINSON AROUND 5AM MT, AND BISMARCK AROUND SUNRISE. WE HAVE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE MONTANA BORDER THROUGH HIGHWAY
83 TO COVER ALL THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THAT WARM FRONT. THE WEST COULD
GET TO THE LOWER 40S, AND THE EAST RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THAT RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE.
THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW, LASTING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS
OF NOW. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH INFLUENCES THE WESTERN CONUS, PUTTING US BACK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT, A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST TERMINALS COULD SEE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
START AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN, BUT THERE
ARE LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AS A DOMINANT TYPE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS A
DOMINANT TYPE FURTHER TO THE EAST. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
PRIMARILY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT AGAIN
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST
/2 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035-
040>046.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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