521
FXUS63 KBIS 311009
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURNS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH STRONG WINDS, AND AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. LIGHT RETURNS HAVE ENTERED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE IS LIMITING PRECIPITATION REPORTS
CURRENTLY. UPSTREAM IN MONTANA, A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
REPORTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED UNDER HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. DRY AIR MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION START TIMES
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, YET FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW ARE
STILL EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS BETTER
WARM AIR ADVECTION, VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT, AND A JET STREAK
MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR COULD LOWER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF A WINTRY
MIX, LEFT THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS, ALTHOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS MAY SEE PRECIPITATION START TIMES DELAY
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
COULD BE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HAS ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUSTAINED WINDS, WITH GUST NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. HREF MAX WINDS
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER, TIMING
OF THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE THIS MORNING WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN. THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING. THUS WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT STARTS TO ERODE A BIT BY THEN,
MAKING SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. MEANWHILE,
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
ACROSS THE WEST. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS, WITH CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW
IN THE WEST, AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WARM
FRONT TODAY WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO PERHAPS LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS. TONIGHT, LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DRAPES A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING CLOUDS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, CONTINUING THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS AND PERHAPS NEAR WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS TODAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S LOW. PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES ARE FOUND FROM THESE CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH THE NBM CURRENTLY
KEEPS A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHICH COULD ALSO LINGER SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WONT BE AS WARM ON
SUNDAY, YET STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER
30S SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SETS UP A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS CLOSER
TO THIS HIGH WILL SEE COLDER LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WHILE
AREAS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THIS HIGH SEES LOWS IN THE 20S. THESE
WARMER AREAS COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD THEN MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL GREATLY
IMPACT WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE. SOME CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS FAVOR THESE HIGHER CHANCES WEST WHILE A NEAR EQUAL
AMOUNT OF OTHERS ARE MORE CENTRAL. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH NBM CHANCES
FOR OVER AN INCH AROUND 10 TO 30%. DEPENDING WHERE THIS SURFACE
HIGH SETS UP WILL ALSO DETERMINE TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
COLDER AREAS NEAR THE HIGH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S,
WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. LOWS
COULD ALSO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE HIGH, AND IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US COULD THEN BRING A WARMING
TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT NBM
FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH PERHAPS SOME 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THESE CURRENT HIGHS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF NBM SPREADS, MEANING
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN COULD THEN
BE FOUND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
RETURN. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY,
WHICH NOT ALL CLUSTERS HAVE. NBM SPREADS ARE QUITE LARGE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD, AND CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END
OF THESE SPREADS INDICATING WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. IF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DOES RETURN THEN PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO RETURN, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
THE NBM HAS A DRY FORECAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LATER
TONIGHT, A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST TERMINALS COULD SEE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
START AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN, BUT THERE
ARE LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AS A DOMINANT TYPE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS A
DOMINANT TYPE FURTHER TO THE EAST. PERIODS OF SLEET ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
PRIMARILY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT AGAIN OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035-040>046.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN/HOLLAN
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