878
FXUS63 KBIS 312150
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83.
- STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 60%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURN MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM BURKE THROUGH
ADAMS COUNTIES, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS RAPIDLY BECOME MORE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SINCE 3 PM CST. AREA WEBCAMS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THIS IS FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN, WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AND RAIN ON THE BACK END
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING. A LIGHT COATING
OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM CST IN OLIVER, EASTERN
MORTON, EASTERN SIOUX, BURLEIGH, AND EMMONS COUNTIES. BUT ANY
ICE SHOULD MELT SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE ABOVE FREEZING AIR
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED IN SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND CUTTING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, DEMARKED BY A WIND SHIFT AND
NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LOW WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
CAUSED BY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS AFTERNOON, P-TYPE HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS FALLING PRECIPITATION HAS OUTPACED THE
SURGING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE THOUGHT HAS
BEEN THAT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD, WE
COULD START TO SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX LIKE WE DID EARLIER
TODAY.
WE DID OPT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO OUR
REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 00 UTC. WE DID ALSO
CANCEL EARLY OUR FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED, AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO LET ANOTHER
ROW OF COUNTIES GO AHEAD OF THE FULL EXPIRATION TIME. CONDITIONS
IN GENERAL IMPROVED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA QUITE FAST, AS
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARMED UP ABOVE FREEZING EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY
ABOVE THE 40 DEGREES F THRESHOLD, WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW, WHILE BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERALL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST AND THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
OR EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MAIN OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS LARGER FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MODERATELY ADAMANT ON A LOSS OF
ICE ALOFT ON TOP OF A SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING TO AROUND 1 KM,
AND OVERLAID WITH ENOUGH OMEGA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BIT TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
REGARDLESS WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM, BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST GET
MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
CLOUDY BUT QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
UNDERNEATH A SHALLOW RIDGE, HELPING TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL STAY A BIT BREEZY CENTRAL AND
EAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH SNOW ENDS UP FALLING THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES,
CROSSING OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS LOW,
AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MINOR P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE
DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
AGREES ON BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS
TOWARDS THE COLD END OF GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY CAUSED BY BIAS CORRECTION FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP.
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM, THE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WEEK IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A WINTRY MIX MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ON AND
OFF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES
COULD THEN SEE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT, WHILE
OTHERS SEE MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS
WAS INCLUDED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE BACK TO MVFR
CEILINGS, WITH POTENTIALLY SOME IFR POCKETS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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