388
FXUS63 KBIS 011210
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR
SNOW TODAY.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH, DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
RETURN MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. REPORTS OF SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING CLOUD
LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW, WITH DRY AIR TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE
STARTED TO TRIM POPS THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT POPS
LINGER IN THE EAST. MEANWHILE, CLOUD COVER AND A LACK OF A
STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES, THUS MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING, IN ITS WAKE WILL
BE A PSEUDO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LINGER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH, ALTHOUGH MAY DELAY THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR UNTIL LATER TODAY
WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING MAY LINGER THEN PERHAPS COOL SLIGHTLY OR
MAINTAIN LATER TODAY, GIVEN THE AREA HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. WITH THIS UNIQUE FRONT WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF TO
OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TODAY. THE ELEVATED WINDS AND LACK OF LIFT BEHIND THIS
LOW SHOULD LIMIT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT TODAY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN POPS THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST, ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL DAY. TONIGHT, A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE EAST, SETTING UP A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE WEST. TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS NEAR THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE WEST, OR LIGHT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORM TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA COULD HELP DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEST AND NORTHCENTRAL. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WEST TONIGHT.
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
LINGERING SURFACE HIGH MAY STEER WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SNOW END UP BEING. CURRENTLY THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL TO
SOUTHCENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH MAY TRY TO PUSH THESE
CHANCES SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WESTWARD. WITH THIS CLIPPER
WILL ALSO SEE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION, QG FORCING, AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE CLIPPER ALSO TRACKS ALONG OR PARALLEL
TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COULD INDICATE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF BANDED SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NBM CHANCES
FOR OVER 2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHER POPS. THERE ARE SOME HREF ENSEMBLE POSTAGE STAMPS
SHOWING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN BANDED SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND OVERALL QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL. ENOUGH COLD AIR
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY
SNOW, WITH PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST,
IF PRECIPITATION CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIMITING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ON MONDAY FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY
THIS CLIPPER, WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS AND 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLIPPER MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR ZERO NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 20S
SOUTHWEST.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THIS HIGH COULD BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
NBM HAS MAINLY DRY FORECAST, YET A LINGERING BOUNDARY FROM
MONDAYS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY
WARM ON TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY MID 20S TO MID 30S FORECAST, TO
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO ALSO BE MILD AND
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES YET TRAPPED MOISTURE
COULD BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO
MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY, WITH A BREEZY YET MILD ZONAL FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. THURSDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A
RESULT. NBM FORECAST WARMED SLIGHTLY TODAY, YET STILL REMAINS ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THE LARGE RIDGE
RETROGRADING OR BREAKING DOWN RETURNING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE
AREA. THIS COULD PERHAPS BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE SOME
CLUSTER SOLUTIONS THAT WANT TO REESTABLISH THIS RIDGE MORE, THUS
LINGERING WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. OF NOTE IS THE NBM
FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NBM TEMPERATURES
SPREADS. PART OF THIS COULD BE CAUSE BY BIAS CORRECTION FROM THE
RECENT COLD SNAP, WHILE THE OTHER PART COULD HINTING AT A WARMER
SOLUTION POSSIBLE LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF EFI VALUES
FOR MAX TEMPERATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE ALSO ELEVATED
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ALSO INDICATING
THE LINGERING OF WARM AIR POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TODAY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN ACROSS MOST
SITES AS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
FORM TONIGHT, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS AS WELL AT
THIS TIME. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, THEN BECOME A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SHOULD START JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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