918
FXUS63 KBIS 012050
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN AN AREA JUST SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE RIVER, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE TO OUR WEST A SHALLOW RIDGE WAS
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST. A LARGE STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, AND LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S SOUTH, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOR A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SWATH OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SNOW CHANCES BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
MOVES OVER. THE TWO QUESTIONS STILL TO BE RESOLVED ARE THE
BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS THE MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS PRETTY VARIED IN THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF ANY FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE
WHERE AND HOW STRONG BANDING POTENTIAL IS, ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF BANDING. VARIOUS GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
INSISTENT ON AN ENHANCED AREA OF QPF FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AND THE NBM 5.0
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT A ~15 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA, SIGNALING THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GOING WITH HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS ALSO
SHOWN IN HREF POSTAGE STAMPS. BUT OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, MAINLY FROM CROSBY, TO MINOT, TO
JAMESTOWN.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MURKIER LOOKING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER,
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE RAIN IS THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. SOMEWHERE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWING THE RIVER, THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT WITH THE SURGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, THERE WILL ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW AND
AREA FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING GENERALLY FROM MCKENZIE COUNTY TO
GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES, WITH AREAS SOUTHWEST OF HERE LOSE THE
WARM NOSE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS FRONTOGENESIS COULD BE ENHANCED IN THIS PART OF THE
STATE, WITH QPF FORECASTS SHOWING BOTH A BAND ACROSS THE NORTH
AND A SECONDARY BAND ACROSS SOME PART OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHANCES, AND WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNS OF SNOW BANDING THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA
DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, FROM THE TEENS NORTH AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STOUT RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, BEFORE PEAKING ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID 30S (NORTH CENTRAL) TO THE LOWER 50S (SOUTHWEST). WHAT
HAPPENS FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH MUCH LARGER
SPREAD IN NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES, DRIVEN BY TWO MINORITY
CLUSTERS THAT HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CHANCES FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM ARE
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS DECK TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY. WE COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT KDIK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL END
UP. CEILINGS WILL FURTHER LOWER TO LOW MVFR / IFR, WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF LIFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY, WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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