520
FXUS63 KBIS 021005
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MOST-LIKELY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 1
TO 4 INCHES, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.
- PERIODS OF SNOW, RAIN, AND BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED AND SHOULD START TO
IMPACT NORTHERN AND SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO BANDED PRECIPITATION
SO FAR. AHEAD OF THESE RETURNS ARE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MIST
REPORTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL LOOK FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS
MAINLY SNOW AND DIMINISHING FOG. OUTSIDE OF THIS ORGANIZED BAND
COULD BE SCATTERED RAIN, SNOW, AND PERHAPS BRIEFING FREEZING
RAIN SHOWERS. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF 100 TO
200 J/KG COMPLIMENTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THUS
SOME THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN CONCERN TODAY ARE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITH ANY BANDED SNOW. QG
FORCING STILL LOOKS STRONG TODAY, ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AT LEAST BRIEF BUT DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS. LOW TRACK IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH
WILL BE QUICK MOVING LIMITING THE RESIDENCE TIME. HREF STAMPS
SHOWING A MEAN OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL, WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING 6 INCHES. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR OVER 4 AND OVER 6 INCHES ARE VERY LOW. HREF PROBS FOR AN
INCH/HOUR IN ANY OF THESE BANDS ARE AROUND 30% ALTHOUGH STEADY
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW COULD LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OF THESE BANDS
AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. OF FURTHER CONCERN ARE SOME MODELS
STILL INDICATING EITHER A WESTWARD OR EASTWARD SHIFT, MAKING
LOCATION OF THESE HEAVIER BANDS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
PUBLISH. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
BANDS YET HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS UNTIL HIGHER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STARK CONTRAST IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TODAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IN THE TEENS AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS IN FALLING SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY,
YET COULD BE GUSTY IN THE SOUTHWEST. HERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH
40 MPH TODAY, STILL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TONIGHT,
SURFACE HIGH IN THE EAST REINFORCES THE STALLED BOUNDARY LEFT
FROM TODAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS, WITH SOME 20S SOUTHWEST. THIS COOLER AIR GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD FROM A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST,
WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. AS THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER THESE CLOUDY
SKIES.
RIDGING ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMING AND MAINLY DRY AIR. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST PLACES, WITH
SOME MID 40S SOUTHWEST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE PARTICULARLY
WARM WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
PLACES, AND 50S SOUTHWEST. NBM STARTING TO COME ONLINE WITH THE
WARMER FORECAST SPREADS, AND MATCHING HINTS OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES BEING SHOW ON THE ECMWF EFI. RECORD HIGHS FOR
FEBRUARY 5TH ARE GENERALLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE MAY BE
HARD TO BREAK YET A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND DRY DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE LARGE WESTERNS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST. THIS SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN
LARGE, WITH NBM FORECAST REMAINING ON THE LOWER END OF THESE
SPREADS INDICATING WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. THIS POSSIBLE WARMER SIGNAL IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE
ECMWF EFI VALUES BEING ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF OR
WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP, HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S, WHILE WARMER AREAS SEE 30S TO LOWER 40S FORECAST.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AT NIGHT. NBM
MAINTAINS A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IF
MORE OF A NORTHWEST PATTERN CAN SET UP THEN PERHAPS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRANSIENT CLIPPER
SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AREAS FROM AROUND KXWA TO KDIK AND KBIS HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS, AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR
CEILINGS MIXED IN AS WELL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST AND LONGEST DURATION IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH AT LEAST IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AREAS FROM AROUND KXWA TO KBIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, BUT COULD STILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISIBILITY. KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD
SEE SNOW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY NOT
AS INTENSE AS CLOSER TO KMOT. SOME AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, INCLUDING KDIK, COULD SEE A LIGHT MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING, CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
AROUND 5 KTS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CLOSER TO 10 KTS IN THE
WEST. ON MONDAY, SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE STATE, WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN/HOLLAN
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