283
FXUS63 KBIS 022144
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW WAS INDICATED OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR FROM MINOT TO
JAMESTOWN AND ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR OVER KIDDER AND STUTSMAN
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FROM WEBCAMS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT,
BUT THERE WERE TIMES WHEN THE SNOW WAS COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN
ND AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING
HINTS OF SOME FOG MOSTLY OVER THE WEST, BUT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
EAST INTO CENTRAL ND LATE OVER NIGHT OR INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH CAMS NOT TOO EXCITED IN LOW VISIBILITIES, KEPT THE MENTION
OF FOG TO PATCHY TO START. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP
AND HRRR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCTS KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WELL SATURATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY EVENING, WILL EACH KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT IF
THE PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN, THERE COULD BE TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK ROADWAYS. ANY
SNOW THAT WOULD FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ONE PRECIP TYPE
OVER THE OTHER, AND SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BOTH BE
POSSIBLE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT IS HIGHER
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, COMPARED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG, WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY,
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE A WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA RIDGE WITH AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH. WE WILL BE
SETTING ON THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO, THUS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WE SEE A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL RISE THEREAFTER, BUT
THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WHICH IS REASONABLE AS WE ARE SITTING ON THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. A HIT OR MISS RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW, ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND. ONE BAND
THAT WILL IMPACT BISMARCK MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ND LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUING IN AREAS OF FOG AND TAPERING LIGHT SNOW. SURFACE FLOW
IS MAINLY EAST AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND AROUND 12 KNOTS
OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR SOUTHWEST ND WHICH SHOULD SEE A
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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