511
FXUS63 KBIS 030432
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS DENSE AT TIMES, ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG COULD EXPAND
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MERIDIONAL MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING. THIS ZONE CONTAINS AREAS OF FOG AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR PERHAPS FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS, HOWEVER.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY OVER
BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES, MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE QUICK
MOVING SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE
AND PRODUCE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IS LOW. IN ADDITION, RECENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM EASTERN
HETTINGER AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES SHOWS MORE OF A MIX OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW, AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION TYPES REPORTED FROM AN AUTOMATED SENSOR AT HAZEN.
WE DO ANTICIPATE THAT EXCESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
MIST IN BETWEEN THE TWO THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BEYOND LOW IMPACTS FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RECENT CAMS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEING FORCED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
LOW TO MEDIUM POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW,
AS THERE ARE STILL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES AMONG CAMS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, A POCKET OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAS
MOVED THROUGH MOUNTRAIL AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES, AND NOW
INTO EASTERN MERCER AND APPROACHING OLIVER COUNTIES AT THE TIME
OF THIS WRITING. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS HALF A MILE HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING AREA OF SNOW, BUT RECENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THIS SNOW COULD
REACH THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA AROUND 7 PM CST IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER.
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM
EASTERN STARK AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES THROUGH GRANT COUNTY,
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH RECENT HRRR VISIBILITY GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLVING INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
EVENT REMAINS LOW.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. RECENT RAP
SOUNDINGS AT BISMARCK, FOR EXAMPLE, PROJECT ALL NECESSARY AND
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS TO BE PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT MAY
HOWEVER BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE SATURATED LAYER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FLURRIES. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THAT NEEDS ADDRESSING IN THE NEXT
UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW WAS INDICATED OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR FROM MINOT TO
JAMESTOWN AND ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR OVER KIDDER AND STUTSMAN
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FROM WEBCAMS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT,
BUT THERE WERE TIMES WHEN THE SNOW WAS COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN
ND AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING
HINTS OF SOME FOG MOSTLY OVER THE WEST, BUT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
EAST INTO CENTRAL ND LATE OVER NIGHT OR INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH CAMS NOT TOO EXCITED IN LOW VISIBILITIES, KEPT THE MENTION
OF FOG TO PATCHY TO START. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP
AND HRRR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCTS KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WELL SATURATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY EVENING, WILL EACH KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT IF
THE PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN, THERE COULD BE TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK ROADWAYS. ANY
SNOW THAT WOULD FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ONE PRECIP TYPE
OVER THE OTHER, AND SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BOTH BE
POSSIBLE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT IS HIGHER
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, COMPARED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG, WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY,
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE A WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA RIDGE WITH AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH. WE WILL BE
SETTING ON THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO, THUS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WE SEE A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL RISE THEREAFTER, BUT
THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WHICH IS REASONABLE AS WE ARE SITTING ON THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. A HIT OR MISS RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, IMPROVING EASTWARD TO MVFR AT KBIS AND VFR FROM KMOT TO
KJMS. WE ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER BOTH KBIS AND KMOT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING KJMS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH VFR POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.
SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG/MIST ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS LIFR. AN AREA
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY IN BETWEEN THE FOG AND FLURRIES.
THEN FROM MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
TURNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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