726
FXUS63 KBIS 030945
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE FOUND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. PRECPITATION
HAS REMAINED VERY LIGHT, MAINLY AS CONDITIONS ABOVE 850MB HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY OUT. MUCH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS FLURRIES, THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS AND TO
THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL LINGERING PRECPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE THIS
MORNING, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG CAN BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FOG HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN TO THE EAST AS THE
CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECPITATION
MOVES OFF. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE BROADLY REMAINED
ABOVE 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. WHILE SATURATED NEAR
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY, FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN WEST NORTHWESTERLY ALONG AND BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH/ WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANOTHER SHALLOW SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITHIN THE DGZ INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE AN AREA OF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH HIGHS BROADLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, THIS PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BECOME A MESS OF PRECPITATION
TYPES. ALL RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS IT LIES IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHILE ALL SNOW BE BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. AN AREA OF
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS WHERE RAIN,
SNOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WITH QPF AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS
WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES END UP FALLING, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
(VERY LOW CHANCE). OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FROM THE MID 20S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, UP TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SPEEDS UP
TO AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS ALOFT AGAIN DRY OUT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SATURATED CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 1-1.5KM OF THE COLUMN COULD ALLOW FOR VERY
LIGHT PRECPITATION IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE BROADLY EXPECTED.
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS,
FORECAST FROM THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
FAR SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CAUSING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED EAST, AND AS A
TRANSIENT HUDSON BAY LOW DEVELOPS. WITH THIS FEATURE SET, A
RETURN TO OUR NOW FAMILIAR SETUP OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A
STRONG NORTHEAST, SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA IS ANTICIPATED. THE ENSEMBLE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISCORDANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT ATTEMPTS RESOLVES
THIS FEATURE SET. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO BROAD SCENARIOS.
THE FIRST OF THESE IS FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY 60 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP), AND IS THE WARMER
OF THE TWO AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A STRONGER HUDSON
BAY LOW ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. A MINORITY CLUSTER (40
PERCENT MEMBERSHIP) ALSO EXISTS, AND IS THE COOLER AS THE RIDGE
IS DISPLACED MUCH MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FACE OF A
WEAKER/OPEN HUDSON BAY LOW. IN EITHER SCENARIO, A TRANSITION TO
A MORE ACTIVE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO CUT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, IMPROVING EASTWARD TO MVFR AT KBIS AND VFR FROM KMOT TO
KJMS. WE ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER BOTH KBIS AND KMOT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING KJMS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH VFR POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.
SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG/MIST ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS LIFR. AN AREA
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY IN BETWEEN THE FOG AND FLURRIES.
THEN FROM MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
TURNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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