715
FXUS63 KBIS 031749
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY FOR FOG/STRATUS. FOG HAS DISSIPATED
AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
WEST CENTRAL. IN THE NORTHWEST, FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATED, BUT SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES REMAIN ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOWER VSBYS AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LET THE SPS FOR FOG EXPIRE AT NOON.
AGAIN SOME PATCHES OF LOWER VSBYS DO REMAIN. FARTHER EAST, THE
SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED, DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN SD.
HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES OR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH INTO ND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AGAIN, A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, KEEPING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WE ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ATTIM. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEAK TO MODERATE RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THE TIME OF
THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. SNOW HAS REMAINED A LITTLE MORE
PERSISTANT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS, HAVE
REPLACED MENTIONS OF FLURRIES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THIS PRECIPITATION, THOUGH HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AT ANY GIVE LOCATION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 3 MILES ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING, AND HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS HAD VISIBILITIES DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 TO
1/2 MILE. LOOKING THROUGH WEBCAMS, HOWEVER, THESE AREAS ARE
FAIRLY SMALL, AND RESTRICTED TO WHERE LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE NEARLY DIED OUT. THUS, HAVE OPTED ISSUE
AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MID
MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT FOG IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO LIFT BY THE
MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. OTHER THAN THE
ADJUSTMENTS MENTIONED OVER, NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE FOUND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. PRECPITATION
HAS REMAINED VERY LIGHT, MAINLY AS CONDITIONS ABOVE 850MB HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY OUT. MUCH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS FLURRIES, THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS AND TO
THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL LINGERING PRECPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE THIS
MORNING, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG CAN BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FOG HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN TO THE EAST AS THE
CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECPITATION
MOVES OFF. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE BROADLY REMAINED
ABOVE 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. WHILE SATURATED NEAR
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY, FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN WEST NORTHWESTERLY ALONG AND BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH/ WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANOTHER SHALLOW SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITHIN THE DGZ INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE AN AREA OF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH HIGHS BROADLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, THIS PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BECOME A MESS OF PRECPITATION
TYPES. ALL RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS IT LIES IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHILE ALL SNOW BE BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. AN AREA OF
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS WHERE RAIN,
SNOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WITH QPF AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS
WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES END UP FALLING, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
(VERY LOW CHANCE). OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FROM THE MID 20S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, UP TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SPEEDS UP
TO AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS ALOFT AGAIN DRY OUT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SATURATED CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 1-1.5KM OF THE COLUMN COULD ALLOW FOR VERY
LIGHT PRECPITATION IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE BROADLY EXPECTED.
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS,
FORECAST FROM THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
FAR SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CAUSING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED EAST, AND AS A
TRANSIENT HUDSON BAY LOW DEVELOPS. WITH THIS FEATURE SET, A
RETURN TO OUR NOW FAMILIAR SETUP OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A
STRONG NORTHEAST, SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA IS ANTICIPATED. THE ENSEMBLE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISCORDANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT ATTEMPTS RESOLVES
THIS FEATURE SET. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO BROAD SCENARIOS.
THE FIRST OF THESE IS FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY 60 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP), AND IS THE WARMER
OF THE TWO AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A STRONGER HUDSON
BAY LOW ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. A MINORITY CLUSTER (40
PERCENT MEMBERSHIP) ALSO EXISTS, AND IS THE COOLER AS THE RIDGE
IS DISPLACED MUCH MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FACE OF A
WEAKER/OPEN HUDSON BAY LOW. IN EITHER SCENARIO, A TRANSITION TO
A MORE ACTIVE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO CUT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE CENTRAL ND TAF
SITES OF KMOT, KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
WESTERN TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AS FOG DISSIPATES. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE AT KXWA AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE, IF AT ALL WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EVENTUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST,
BUT BETTER BET WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...TWH
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