219
FXUS63 KBIS 032048
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED MID TO LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS MIGHT BRING
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL
THE CAMS AND ENSEMBLE NBM GUIDANCE ARE NOT DEPICTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE THAT DOES PRODUCE VERY LIGHT QPF, AND TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY, WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT
RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL
ND, HOWEVER CURRENT CEILINGS ARE AROUND 10KFT OR HIGHER SO DOUBT
MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. THINK CEILINGS WILL
LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, RANGING FROM LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL ND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
A SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW STRATUS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN, HEADING TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF ND IS ALREADY
COVERED IN STRATUS SO THIS JUST A REASSURANCE THAT WE REMAIN
CLOUDY. THE WEST THOUGH DID SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THINK MUCH OF THE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME COVERED IN LOW
STRATUS TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE ADDED A MENTION OF
FLURRIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS. THE DEPTH OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW THIS EVENING, BUT DOES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1KM BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A NICE DRY
LAYER ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER, WHICH IS FAVORABLE BUT THE 1KM
DEPTH DOESN'T LAST TOO LONG BEFORE DROPPING A BIT. THERE IS A
STEEP LAPSE RATE WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER WHICH LOCAL KNOWLEDGE SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
WOULD BE FAVORED. IT'S NOT THAT WE CAN'T HAVE FZDZ SO WILL PASS
THIS ALONG TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR FURTHER EVALUATION. THERE IS
ALSO A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LINGERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
WEAK, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE FZDZ POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, FZDZ
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS USUALLY LOW IMPACT. AREAS OF FOG
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE
WINDS, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS LIKELY, AND IF IT DOES
DEVELOP, NOT AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO NORTHWEST ND FOR NOW AS THIS IS THE AREAS MOST
CAMS SEEM TO FAVOR. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT/CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND MAY SEE CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE THE FAR WEST SHOULD BE THE FIRST
TO CLEAR, HOPEFULLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE CLEARING,
BROUGHT ON BY A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE BEGINNING OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH UPPER
30S FORECAST FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, BUT
WE THEN CLIMB GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T GREAT,
BUT EVEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL. ONCE WE CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE CENTRAL ND TAF
SITES OF KMOT, KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
WESTERN TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AS FOG DISSIPATES. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE AT KXWA AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE, IF AT ALL WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EVENTUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST,
BUT BETTER BET WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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