992
FXUS63 KBIS 040545
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED MID TO LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
LOW STATUS LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID NIGHT UPDATE. ISOLATED REPORTS OF
LIGHT PRECPITATION HAVE CONTINUE, THOUGH THE ONGOING COOLING OF
THE COLUMN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN FLURRIES
BEING FAVORED OVER THE PREVIOUS REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 85. OTHERWISE, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME, AS IT BROADLY REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO BE TRENDING WELL. WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD, COVERING ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS, MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END SOON AS BOTH THE DEPTH AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF THE NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER DECREASE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 826 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR AREAS
FROM AROUND KENMARE TO GARRISON. RECENT AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS
NEAR STANLEY AND MAX HAVE REPORTED FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND WEBCAM
IMAGERY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR NEAR CARPIO IN NORTHWEST WARD
COUNTY ALSO INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WE STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, BUT SOME UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME SLICK. ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING, WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ABOVE A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND AS VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. THERE HAVE ALSO
BEEN SOME FLURRIES OBSERVED WITHIN THE TRAILING LOW STRATUS
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. OVERALL, WE CONTINUE TO
ANTICIPATE UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RECENT
VISIBILITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A FOGGIER SOLUTION ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH IS
KNOWN TO BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG FORMATION. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW DENSE THIS FOG COULD BE, BUT THERE IS A
SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS MIGHT BRING
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL
THE CAMS AND ENSEMBLE NBM GUIDANCE ARE NOT DEPICTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE THAT DOES PRODUCE VERY LIGHT QPF, AND TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY, WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT
RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL
ND, HOWEVER CURRENT CEILINGS ARE AROUND 10KFT OR HIGHER SO DOUBT
MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. THINK CEILINGS WILL
LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, RANGING FROM LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL ND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
A SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW STRATUS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN, HEADING TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF ND IS ALREADY
COVERED IN STRATUS SO THIS JUST A REASSURANCE THAT WE REMAIN
CLOUDY. THE WEST THOUGH DID SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THINK MUCH OF THE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME COVERED IN LOW
STRATUS TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE ADDED A MENTION OF
FLURRIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS. THE DEPTH OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW THIS EVENING, BUT DOES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1KM BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A NICE DRY
LAYER ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER, WHICH IS FAVORABLE BUT THE 1KM
DEPTH DOESN'T LAST TOO LONG BEFORE DROPPING A BIT. THERE IS A
STEEP LAPSE RATE WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER WHICH LOCAL KNOWLEDGE SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
WOULD BE FAVORED. IT'S NOT THAT WE CAN'T HAVE FZDZ SO WILL PASS
THIS ALONG TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR FURTHER EVALUATION. THERE IS
ALSO A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LINGERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
WEAK, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE FZDZ POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, FZDZ
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS USUALLY LOW IMPACT. AREAS OF FOG
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE
WINDS, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS LIKELY, AND IF IT DOES
DEVELOP, NOT AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO NORTHWEST ND FOR NOW AS THIS IS THE AREAS MOST
CAMS SEEM TO FAVOR. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT/CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND MAY SEE CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE THE FAR WEST SHOULD BE THE FIRST
TO CLEAR, HOPEFULLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE CLEARING,
BROUGHT ON BY A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE BEGINNING OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH UPPER
30S FORECAST FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, BUT
WE THEN CLIMB GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T GREAT,
BUT EVEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL. ONCE WE CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT ARE
UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY CATEGORICAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY FROM BETWEEN KXWA AND KMOT TO BETWEEN KMOT AND
KBIS. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG/MIST COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ADAM/HOLLAN
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