817
FXUS63 KBIS 041514
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS, ISOLATED FLURRIES, AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED MID TO LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SPS TO COVER THIS AS THE DENSE FOG IS SPOTTY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES, THIS
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
LOW STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. IN THE
NORTHWEST, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST, PATCHY FOG CAN BE FOUND.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE BROADLY FROM 1 TO 3 MILES WHERE FOG
LINGERS, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DROPPED AS LOW
AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. WINDS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND
REMAINED A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, WHICH HAS SO FAR
LIMITED THE EXPANSION OF THE FOG IN THESE DIRECTIONS. OTHERWISE,
VERY FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR NOW, THOUGH WE
MAY ONLY SEE ONE OR TWO MORE REPORTS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH
NO ADJUSTMENTS PERFORMED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS INFLUENCE FROM A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SPREADS EASTWARD. NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
SATURATED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN
THE FIRST 1KM ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WEAK OMEGA THROUGH THIS
LAYER WILL ALLOW ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
THOUGH BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE NEAR SURFACE SATURATED LAYER
BECOMES MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. AS WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN ACROSS
THE WEST, THIS STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SETTLE ONTO THE SURFACE AS
PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILES OVER
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 6 MILES FOUND
MORE BROADLY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. WITH A DEVELOPING
LLJ ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH A
DECENT WARM FRONT LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CLIP
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH
LIGHT, NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW (VERY LOW CHANCE). OTHERWISE, FOR
TODAY, LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WITH CLEARING SKIES, AND WITH THE WARMER
AIRMASS DRAPED OVER THE REGION, HIGHS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, AS
THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATER THAT EVENING, AND DUE
TO THE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NORTH CENTRAL, UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO ERODE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOME
ESTABLISHED, A STRONG NE TO SW TEMPERATURES GRADIENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BECOME INCREASINGLY BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY
(60 PERCENT OF MODEL MEMBERS) FAVOR A STRONG REDEVELOPING RIDGE
MOVING IN TO THE WEST, AND THUS A STRONGER WARMING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO, WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISING TO SEE
HIGHS BROADLY IN THE MID 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
MINORITY CLUSTER (40 PERCENT OF MODEL MEMBERS) INSTEAD FAVOR A
MUCH SHALLOWER RIDGE, MAINTAINING THE FAIRLY STRICT NE TO SW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THIS SCENARIO,
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S, NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WOULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. IN EITHER SCENARIO, SEASONABLY WARM AND RELATIVELY
DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, LONG-TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO A PATTERN SHIFT SOMETIME BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS
A MORE AGGRESSIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL AND
CROSSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FLOW OVER THE REGION TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY, A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED BY THE LATE TO MID WEEK. WHEN THIS SHIFT OCCURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (65
PERCENT) FAVORING A TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WHILE A MINORITY (35 PERCENT) DELAYS THIS UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY, EARLY THURSDAY. THE CIPS CLIMATE ANALOGUES HAS
STARTED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT, LEANING TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECPITATION
BY THE LATE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE, ANY DETAILS ABOUT WHAT, WHERE,
AND WHEN FOR ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN VERY
OBSCURED AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BROADLY BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS LINGERS. LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH
THE MORNING. FOG AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING, BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LLWS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL
JET DROPS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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