594
FXUS63 KBIS 050545
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THE TIME OF
THIS MID NIGHT UPDATE, AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK. QUIET WEATHER IS
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NO UPDATED NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND MILD TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE. WARM FRONT AND CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOW PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. SHOULD
BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF ND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CURRENTLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SITTING OVER THE WEST
COAST AND DOMINATING THE PATTERN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL LINGERING IN NORTH DAKOTA,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PATCHY FOG IS GONE. WITH THIS CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARMING INTO THE 30S WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY FROM A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OFF A PASSING
CLIPPER STAYING IN CANADA, THIS WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN THE RIDGE DIES, LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
LEADING TO THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING.
MONDAY THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST THAT NORTHWEST FLOW
COULD CREATE SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS ONCE AGAIN OFF THE NORTHERN
(CANADIAN) ROCKIES. AS OF NOW, THE NBM HAS SLIGHT (20%) CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES. TIMING LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FEW OTHER CLIPPER SYSTEMS
COULD FOLLOW IN LINE. WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE COULD DIG A LITTLE
DEEPER AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
INSTEAD OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLIPPERS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE COOLER AIR
IN THE CLIPPERS WILL BE. THE RANGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA, INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING
KXWA, KMOT AND KJMS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST (10 TO 25 KTS) TONIGHT THEN REMAIN
NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/TWH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TWH
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