384
FXUS63 KBIS 051747
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1147 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY
AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE WEST, AND A MIX OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PERFORMED AT THIS TIME. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING, THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS THE WEST BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TURNING INCREASINGLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS, UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOWS THIS MORNING FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
IN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR VERY LIGHT PRECPITATION PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE FIRST 1KM OF THE COLUMN OUT OF CANADA. WHILE MAINLY FALLING
AS FLURRIES PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAINS COMPARABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER
REMAINS COMPARABLY SHALLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH COULD STILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIE OUT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
PRECPITATION AND FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN WARMING TREND WE'VE EXPERIENCED
THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA,
UP TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY, THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AN
INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REVEALS THAT THIS SATURATED LAYER MAY BE FAIRLY SHALLOW, ONLY
THROUGH THE FIRST 1/2KM OR SO, AND THUS ANY LIGHT PRECPITATION
THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
THE ENSEMBLE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE RETURN OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, SPLIT BETWEEN A BROADLY WARMER
SOLUTION (50 PERCENT OF MEMBERS) WHICH ADVERTISES THE
REDEVELOPING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND A COOLER SOLUTION (50
PERCENT MEMBERSHIP), THAT INSTEAD FAVORS A NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. THIS COOLER SOLUTION IN PARTICULAR
WOULD FAVOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THIS SCENARIO WE COULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THAT, OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW (LOW CHANCES). WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LINGERING MONDAY,
THIS PRECPITATION MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A MIX OF WINTRY
PRECPITATION, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW BY TUESDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO COOL. LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
ARRIVAL FOR A STRONG, POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE OUT OF THE VERY WARM AND COMPARABLY DRY
CONDITIONS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN
THE CIPS CLIMATE ANALOGUES, WHICH LEANS TOWARD NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECPITATION BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. OF COURSE, AT THIS TIME SCALE, DETAILS ABOUT WHAT, WHERE,
AND WHEN FOR ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS OBSCURED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
BRING MVFR, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR, CEILINGS TO MOST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES COULD FALL UNDER THESE LOW
CEILINGS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE TRANSITORY LLWS AS IS
PASSES THROUGH, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, BUT ALSO WITH POCKETS POTENTIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...TELKEN
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