689
FXUS63 KBIS 051924
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY. TODAY
AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WELL AMPLIFIED WEST CONUS
RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS TODAY HAVE
ALREADY OVERPERFORMED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 40S
AND SOME 50S PRESENT. THAT SAID, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
(WINDIER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST) OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A FEW
FLURRIES MAY FALL FROM THIS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE, POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND ARE NO LONGER ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A
GREATER THAN ZERO CHANCE IT COULD STILL OCCUR. EITHER WAY, AS
SUPPORTED BY THE HREF, ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES ARE NOT LIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL (MAINLY TURTLE MOUNTAINS
VICINITY) AND EAST ON FRIDAY, WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS FAR NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM HIGHS CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST
TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST. OF NOTE, HOWEVER, IS A LARGE NBM
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ND ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOWER SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE WARMEST AIRMASS WILL SET UP, AND POTENTIALLY THE
TIMING OF A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA,
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH TO A WARMING WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
DESPITE THE RIDGE LIKELY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT, MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST OVERALL AS WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL TAKE ON/MAINTAIN A WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
WHILE POTENTIALLY REMAINING SOUTHERLY IN THE EAST. NBM HIGHS AT
THIS TIME RANGE FROM THE 30S EAST AND INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER
WHICH, THERE ARE HINTS THAT A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, WHICH IS
EMPHASIZED BY THE NBM PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ARE OVERALL
FAVORED TO BECOME COOLER THAN AT THE START OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
BRING MVFR, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR, CEILINGS TO MOST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES COULD FALL UNDER THESE LOW
CEILINGS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE TRANSITORY LLWS AS IS
PASSES THROUGH, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, BUT ALSO WITH POCKETS POTENTIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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