211
FXUS63 KBIS 060002
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
602 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY. TODAY
AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. WE WILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS PICK UP. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WELL AMPLIFIED WEST CONUS
RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS TODAY HAVE
ALREADY OVERPERFORMED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 40S
AND SOME 50S PRESENT. THAT SAID, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
(WINDIER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST) OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A FEW
FLURRIES MAY FALL FROM THIS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE, POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND ARE NO LONGER ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A
GREATER THAN ZERO CHANCE IT COULD STILL OCCUR. EITHER WAY, AS
SUPPORTED BY THE HREF, ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES ARE NOT LIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL (MAINLY TURTLE MOUNTAINS
VICINITY) AND EAST ON FRIDAY, WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS FAR NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM HIGHS CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST
TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST. OF NOTE, HOWEVER, IS A LARGE NBM
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ND ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOWER SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE WARMEST AIRMASS WILL SET UP, AND POTENTIALLY THE
TIMING OF A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA,
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH TO A WARMING WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
DESPITE THE RIDGE LIKELY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT, MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST OVERALL AS WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL TAKE ON/MAINTAIN A WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
WHILE POTENTIALLY REMAINING SOUTHERLY IN THE EAST. NBM HIGHS AT
THIS TIME RANGE FROM THE 30S EAST AND INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER
WHICH, THERE ARE HINTS THAT A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, WHICH IS
EMPHASIZED BY THE NBM PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ARE OVERALL
FAVORED TO BECOME COOLER THAN AT THE START OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND 10 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING OVER WESTERN ND. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT EASTERLY FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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