111
FXUS63 KBIS 061019
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CURRENTLY, HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. COLD
FROPA PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER, WITH A LARGE STRATUS DECK SURGING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS AT
TIMES, SO WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AM HOURS.
WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST,
OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION FOR NOW.
MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST, AND HIGHS
SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER 40S. CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE SOME
SOUTHWEST, BUT EXPECTED TO LINGER ELSEWHERE TODAY WITH LITTLE
SCOURING EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
EASTERN ND TODAY, WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. INCREASING RETURN FLOW RESULTS, WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
WAA REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST SAT-SUN. DESPITE THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SAT/SATURDAY NIGHT, WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SFC LOW DEVELOPING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, COUPLED
WITH GOOD MIXING OVER OUR REGION, WILL RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN
THE 30S EAST AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S OR
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST
THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH,
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK THOUGH
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS EMPHASIZED BY THE
NBM PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE NOW PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THROUGH KMOT AND KJMS
AND APPROACHING KXWA AND KBIS BY 06 UTC. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL
IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST TO COVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LASTING A FEW
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES
AND IMPACT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN FZDZ IS JUST AS
LOW OR LOWER THAN FLURRIES BUT SO NO MENTION IN ANY TAF, BUT
IMPACTS COULD BE HIGHER IF FZDZ WOULD MATERIALIZE. CAMS HAVE
BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE SIGNAL FOR FOG OVER WESTERN ND. WILL
BACK OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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