412
FXUS63 KBIS 061816
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
SEASONABLE IN THE EAST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES TODAY.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES MAY ALSO BE FOUND TODAY UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LIMITED
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER YET STILL MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FOUND TODAY. FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED
UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER, THUS DECIDED TO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THESE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
STRATUS OVER ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE STRATUS
IS VERY SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO. SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS PERSIST CENTRAL, WITH AT TIMES VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
FALLING SNOW. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE FOR
THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CURRENTLY, HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. COLD
FROPA PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER, WITH A LARGE STRATUS DECK SURGING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS AT
TIMES, SO WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AM HOURS.
WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST,
OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION FOR NOW.
MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST, AND HIGHS
SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER 40S. CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE SOME
SOUTHWEST, BUT EXPECTED TO LINGER ELSEWHERE TODAY WITH LITTLE
SCOURING EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
EASTERN ND TODAY, WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. INCREASING RETURN FLOW RESULTS, WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
WAA REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST SAT-SUN. DESPITE THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SAT/SATURDAY NIGHT, WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SFC LOW DEVELOPING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, COUPLED
WITH GOOD MIXING OVER OUR REGION, WILL RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN
THE 30S EAST AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER 50S OR
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST
THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH,
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK THOUGH
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS EMPHASIZED BY THE
NBM PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. THERE COULD BE SOME
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AT THE KXWA AND KDIK
TAF SITE. MEANWHILE, CLOUDY AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. AREAS WITH CLOUDS COULD SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME A BREEZY
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY,
BECOMING A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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